Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions and, more importantly, consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) and other SDGs. In this connection, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP). This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as emission reduction targets – nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
The key objective of this SDG 7 Roadmap is to assist the Government of Tonga to develop enabling policy measures for achieving the SDG 7 targets. It contains a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider. It presents several scenarios that have been developed using national data, and which consider existing energy policies and strategies as well as reflect on other development plans. These scenarios are expected to enable the Government of Tonga to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, together with the NDC.
The key objective of this SDG 7 Roadmap is to assist the Government of Tonga to develop enabling policy measures for achieving the SDG 7 targets. It contains a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider. It presents several scenarios that have been developed using national data, and which consider existing energy policies and strategies as well as reflect on other development plans. These scenarios are expected to enable the Government of Tonga to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, together with the NDC.
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Section 1
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A. Highlights of the Roadmap
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Tonga has been making good progress towards achieving the SDG 7 targets, but more needs to be done to achieve all SDG 7 targets by 2030 through a concerted effort and the establishment of an enabling policy framework. Tonga is on track to achieve the universal access to electricity by 2020, which contributes to bringing the Government a step closer to alleviating poverty.
Currently, close to 35 per cent of the Tonga’s population still relies on unclean cooking technologies and fuels. A remarkable progress in clean cooking access is projected under no policy interventions, yet more governmental commitment and targeted measures are required to bring the access rate to a 100 per cent. The energy efficiency target, in accordance with an annual improvement rate of 0.07 per cent, can be readily achieved under the current policy settings through the gradual transition from low efficient to more efficient cooking technologies as well as the projected ramp-up in renewable energy generation. Nevertheless, Tonga may not achieve its NDC target without increasing its planned renewable power capacity.
There are ample of opportunities for Tonga to raise its ambitions beyond achieving the SDG and NDC targets, while offering multiple benefits. Energy savings in the residential and commercial sectors through phasing-out of inefficient appliances allows reduction of electricity demand which, in turn, reduces the need for power sector investment. Sustainable transport strategies – such as encouraging the electrification of vehicle fleets – will not only reduce GHG emissions but also enhance Tonga’s energy security by reducing the reliance on imported fuels. Diversification of fuel for power generation that focuses on exploiting the full potential of indigenous sources should also be Tonga’s key priority. The levelized cost of electricity from renewable power technologies has experienced a steep decline, becoming economically more competitive than the conventional fossil-fuel-based technologies. A low carbon power sector is not only economically feasible, it may also be the optimal way forward considering its imperativeness in climate change mitigation and energy security enhancement.
Currently, close to 35 per cent of the Tonga’s population still relies on unclean cooking technologies and fuels. A remarkable progress in clean cooking access is projected under no policy interventions, yet more governmental commitment and targeted measures are required to bring the access rate to a 100 per cent. The energy efficiency target, in accordance with an annual improvement rate of 0.07 per cent, can be readily achieved under the current policy settings through the gradual transition from low efficient to more efficient cooking technologies as well as the projected ramp-up in renewable energy generation. Nevertheless, Tonga may not achieve its NDC target without increasing its planned renewable power capacity.
There are ample of opportunities for Tonga to raise its ambitions beyond achieving the SDG and NDC targets, while offering multiple benefits. Energy savings in the residential and commercial sectors through phasing-out of inefficient appliances allows reduction of electricity demand which, in turn, reduces the need for power sector investment. Sustainable transport strategies – such as encouraging the electrification of vehicle fleets – will not only reduce GHG emissions but also enhance Tonga’s energy security by reducing the reliance on imported fuels. Diversification of fuel for power generation that focuses on exploiting the full potential of indigenous sources should also be Tonga’s key priority. The levelized cost of electricity from renewable power technologies has experienced a steep decline, becoming economically more competitive than the conventional fossil-fuel-based technologies. A low carbon power sector is not only economically feasible, it may also be the optimal way forward considering its imperativeness in climate change mitigation and energy security enhancement.
Section 2
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B. Achieving Tonga’s SDG 7 and NDC targets by 2030
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Universal access to electricity
Tonga was on-track to achieve universal access to electricity by 2021. Achieving universal access to electricity is a priority for the Government of Tonga, The Tonga Energy Roadmap (TERM) states that Tonga should achieve 100 per cent access to electricity by 2020(Government of Tonga, 2010) . Achievement of this target is crucial to meet the Government’s primary target of “poverty alleviation”. Based on geographic location of the households that have yet to be connected, NEXSTEP suggests that off-grid PV mini-grid technology would be more cost-effective and would enable faster implementation.
Universal access to clean cooking
Tonga does not have a specific policy for achieving universal access to clean cooking. NEXSTEP analysis shows that the current rate of improvement is not enough to achieve universal access to clean cooking (figure ES 1). In the current policy settings, access to clean cooking will increase from 65.3 per cent in 2018 to 92.2 per cent in 2030, which leaves about 8,000 people (1,787 households) relying on inefficient and hazardous cooking fuels and technologies. Tonga needs to increase its efforts to achieve universal access to clean cooking fuels. NEXSTEP analysis indicates that LPG cooking stoves is the recommended option, based on affordability, high efficiency and reduced indoor air pollution for the remaining 8,000 people by 2030.
Tonga was on-track to achieve universal access to electricity by 2021. Achieving universal access to electricity is a priority for the Government of Tonga, The Tonga Energy Roadmap (TERM) states that Tonga should achieve 100 per cent access to electricity by 2020
Universal access to clean cooking
Tonga does not have a specific policy for achieving universal access to clean cooking. NEXSTEP analysis shows that the current rate of improvement is not enough to achieve universal access to clean cooking (figure ES 1). In the current policy settings, access to clean cooking will increase from 65.3 per cent in 2018 to 92.2 per cent in 2030, which leaves about 8,000 people (1,787 households) relying on inefficient and hazardous cooking fuels and technologies. Tonga needs to increase its efforts to achieve universal access to clean cooking fuels. NEXSTEP analysis indicates that LPG cooking stoves is the recommended option, based on affordability, high efficiency and reduced indoor air pollution for the remaining 8,000 people by 2030.
Figure ES 1. Tonga access to clean cooking
Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 25.2 per cent (including traditional biomass) in 2018. Based on current policies, the share of renewable energy will decrease to 15.2 per cent by 2030, mainly due to the substitution of traditional biomass cooking stoves by LPG cooking stoves. In the SDG scenario the share of renewable energy in TFEC will be 17.7 per cent by 2030. The increase will require a high penetration of renewable energy in the power sector, with a renewable energy capacity addition of 26 MW of solar PP and 8 MW of wind PP by 2030, compared with current plans of 18 MW of solar PP and 6 MW of wind PP in the Tonga Power Limited Business Plan. Looking further, diesel-fired power plants beyond 2020 are seen to be an uneconomic option as the lifecycle cost of renewable-based power generation is substantially cheaper than the fossil fuel counterpart.
Energy efficiency
The current trend of energy intensity reduction indicates that Tonga will achieve its energy efficiency target by 2030. The SDG rate requires annual improvement of 0.07 per cent of primary energy intensity (figure ES 2) to achieve the SDG 7 target of 2.94 MJ/$ by 2030, a slight drop from 2.97 MJ/$ in 2018.
Figure ES 2. Tonga energy efficiency target
Nationally determined contributions
Tonga makes negligible contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and is not obliged to have any emission target as per the NDC document. Tonga’s intended national contribution targets cascaded at the energy sector level are
- Fifty per cent renewable energy in electric power generation by 2020 will be achieved in the 2020-2021 fiscal year, based on current policies. The share of renewable energy in electric power generation is projected to be 24 per cent in 2020, increasing to 55 per cent in 2021, as per the TPL plan. The target will be achieved a year late due to implementation delays caused by COVID-19.
- The second target of 70 per cent renewable energy in electric power generation by 2030 may not be achieved, based on current policies, and additional investment is required. The share of renewable energy in power generation, as per the TPL plan, will range between 52 per cent and 55 per cent during 2021-2030.
- Improved energy efficiency through reduction of electricity line losses to 9 per cent by 2020 (from a baseline of 18 per cent in 2010).
Figure ES 3. Comparison of emissions by scenario, 2018-2030
Section 3
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C. Important policy directions
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The key policy recommendations to help Tonga achieve SDG 7 and NDC targets as well as enhance energy security and build back better from the COVID-19 pandemic, include:
● Improving energy efficiency beyond the SDG 7 target is economically feasible and will help to reduce fuel import dependency. Negative and low-cost measures, including efficient lighting, Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS), switching to electric transport and improving fuel economy standards, have a solid business case with a quick return on investment.
● Tonga has the potential to achieve its NDC target of renewable electric power generation by increasing its ambition. The SDG scenario recommends investments in solar and wind energy in line with the Tonga Power Limited Business Plan 2020-2025. However, the current plan of 52 per cent by 2030 can be increased to 70 per cent, in line with TERM 2010-2020, by using an integrated approach of energy efficiency, energy storage to increase the capacity factor and prioritizing renewables with zero additional investments.
● Diesel-fired power generation is no longer cost-effective compared with renewables, and new deployment of this technology should be avoided. Least-cost optimization analysis suggests that lifecycle costs of renewables are cheaper than diesel-fired technologies. The results from optimization indicate early investments in renewables will generate greater benefits compared to late interventions.
● Efforts to achieve universal access to clean cooking need to increase. LPG cooking stoves are the recommended technology option to achieve this target for Tonga. Implementation of this programme will cost the Government of Tonga US$ 100,000, considering a full subsidization on the upfront stove costs for the households, to achieve universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030.
● Improving energy efficiency beyond the SDG 7 target is economically feasible and will help to reduce fuel import dependency. Negative and low-cost measures, including efficient lighting, Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS), switching to electric transport and improving fuel economy standards, have a solid business case with a quick return on investment.
● Tonga has the potential to achieve its NDC target of renewable electric power generation by increasing its ambition. The SDG scenario recommends investments in solar and wind energy in line with the Tonga Power Limited Business Plan 2020-2025. However, the current plan of 52 per cent by 2030 can be increased to 70 per cent, in line with TERM 2010-2020, by using an integrated approach of energy efficiency, energy storage to increase the capacity factor and prioritizing renewables with zero additional investments.
● Diesel-fired power generation is no longer cost-effective compared with renewables, and new deployment of this technology should be avoided. Least-cost optimization analysis suggests that lifecycle costs of renewables are cheaper than diesel-fired technologies. The results from optimization indicate early investments in renewables will generate greater benefits compared to late interventions.
● Efforts to achieve universal access to clean cooking need to increase. LPG cooking stoves are the recommended technology option to achieve this target for Tonga. Implementation of this programme will cost the Government of Tonga US$ 100,000, considering a full subsidization on the upfront stove costs for the households, to achieve universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030.