Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions, and consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between SDG 7 and other SDGs. To address this challenge, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP).[1] This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
The key objective of this SDG 7 Road Map[1] is to assist the Government of Thailand in assessing whether the existing policies and strategies are well-aligned to achieving the SDG 7 and NDCs targets by 2030. This Road Map presents three core scenarios (BAU, CPS and SDG scenarios) that have been developed using national data, which consider existing energy policies and strategies and reflect on other development plans. The Government also wanted to develop long-term scenarios in line with its commitment to Carbon Neutrality by 2050 and Net Zero GHG Emissions by 2065. These scenarios offer policymakers a strategic viewpoint on how Thailand could plan for a low-carbon energy pathway in alignment with the global race to net zero carbon.
[1] The NEXSTEP tool has been specially designed to perform analyses of the energy sector in the context of SDG 7 and NDCs, with the aim that the output will provide a set of policy recommendations to achieve the SDG 7 and NDC targets.
[2] This Road Map examines the current status of the national energy sector and existing policies, compares them with the SDG 7 targets, and presents different scenarios highlighting technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider.
With the presence of multiple enabling frameworks, Thailand’s progress towards achieving the SDG 7 and NDC targets is promising. In terms of access to modern energy, Thailand has achieved universal access to electricity in recent years. However, the current pace will not be enough to close the clean cooking access gap by 2030. Without a concerted effort, Thailand is unlikely to achieve universal access to clean cooking technology by 2030. One option for Thailand is to explore the use of highly energy efficient induction-type electric cooking stoves, particularly in areas where there is sufficient electricity supply.
Thailand is also on track to achieve its 30 per cent renewable energy target in final energy consumption (excluding non-energy use) and its 36 per cent energy intensity reduction target (compared with 2010 levels) by 2037. Thailand has also demonstrated that the existing policy framework may also help the country in achieving the unconditional emission reduction target pledged under the Paris Agreement. These results have been possible due to the presence of strong and integrated policy measures, which are the Power Development Plan (PDP), the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP), and the Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP). Following the SDG 7.3 energy efficiency definition, Thailand’s energy intensity is expected to be 3.5 MJ/US$2017 in 2030 under the current policy scenario. NEXSTEP analysis identifies the fact that Thailand can even lower further its energy intensity to 3.1 MJ/US$2017 in order to align with the global energy efficiency improvement rate of 3.4 per cent per annum, and achieve the conditional NDC target by accelerating the implementation of compulsory measure under EEP.
In addition to a highly efficient energy system, a faster transition towards cleaner energy sources, especially renewables, will help Thailand to reach Carbon Neutrality by 2050 and Net Zero GHG Emissions by 2065. This, however, requires an ambitious effort to switch fossil fuel-based energy systems to renewables. Electrification of existing technologies, such as vehicles and cooking stoves, will be a necessity in the long term. A deeper analysis indicates that phasing out coal-fired power plants by 2050 is feasible, since the lifecycle cost of renewable-based power generation is already cheaper than coal-fired energy.
1. Universal access to electricity
Around 0.2 per cent of Thailand’s population lacked access to electricity in 2021. Some organizations reported that Thailand recently closed the electricity access gap (World Bank, 2020; ASEAN-German Energy Programme, 2021). There is a possibility that a small proportion of unelectrified households that exist may be unregistered. In such cases, it is suggested that mini/off-grid systems technologies (i.e., solar mini-grid and solar home systems) would be the more appropriate technologies, based on the technologies’ cost-effectiveness and climate resiliency, while allowing faster implementation compared to the grid extension.
2. Universal access to clean cooking technology
Under the current policy settings, the clean cooking access is projected to reach only 93 per cent in 2030 from 85 per cent in 2021 (figure ES 1). This leaves around 1.6 million households still relying on the use of polluting solid fuel stoves (assuming biomass and charcoal as the primary fuels) in 2030. This will expose the population to negative health impacts, including non-communicable diseases such as stroke, ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer, particularly among women and children (World Health Organization, 2022a).
This Road Map suggests closing the gap by using electric cooking, stoves since this option may provide a better long-term alternative compared to LPG stoves. With this measure in place, the share of electric cooking stoves will be 9.7 per cent, while the share of LPG will be 90.3 per cent in 2030 (under the SDG scenario).
Figure ES 1. Thailand’s access to clean cooking under the BAU, CPS and SDG scenarios[1]
3. Renewable energy
The share of modern renewable energy (excluding traditional biomass usage in residential cooking) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC – including non-energy use) was 11.7 per cent in 2021. Based on current policies, the share of renewable energy is projected to increase to 18.7 per cent by 2030. The increase is due to the projected increase in renewable electricity as per the PDP as well as the growing renewable share for other purposes as per AEDP, such as industrial heating and biofuel for transportation. In the SDG scenario, the share of renewable energy is projected to increase to 25.7 per cent of TFEC in 2030. The additional 7 percentage point increase can be attributed to phasing out traditional biomass usage as well as further energy efficiency improvements to reach a lower energy intensity.
When non-energy use, such as Industrial Process and Product Use (IPPU), is excluded in the calculation, Thailand is on track to achieve its target of 30 per cent renewable energy share by 2037. By 2030, the renewable share calculated using Thailand definition will be 21.9 per cent for CPS and 29.4 per cent for the SDG scenario in 2030.
4. Energy efficiency
Thailand is on track to achieve the target of 36 per cent energy intensity reduction to 5.47 ktoe/billion Baht of GDP by 2037. Energy intensity is projected to be 6.25 ktoe/billion Baht in 2030 and 5.38 ktoe/billion Baht in 2037 under CPS. This would be possible due to the presence of compulsory and promotional measures under EEP which targets a 35.5 Mtoe energy demand reduction by 2037.
The energy efficiency indicator above is slightly different[2] from the one defined and measured under SDG 7. Therefore, these two values cannot be directly compared. Under CPS, the energy intensity is projected to drop to 3.5 MJ/USD2017. Thailand can further reach an energy intensity of 3.1 MJ/US$2017, aligning with the global energy efficiency improvement rate of 3.4 per cent per annum, by accelerating the implementation of compulsory measure under EEP, such as energy management standard and building energy code.
4. Nationally determined contribution
Thailand’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30 per cent unconditionally by 2030 (The Government of Thailand, 2022). Subject to international assistance, Thailand aims to reduce its emissions by 40 per cent in 2030.
Thailand will be able to achieve an unconditional NDC target by 2030. Emissions will reach 239.7 MtCO2-e in 2030, a 115.4 MtCO2-e (32.5 per cent) reduction compared with the BAU scenario. The decrease in GHG emissions, relative to BAU, is due to the higher renewable share in electricity supply according to PDP, the higher renewable share in heat and biofuel mix based on AEDP as well as significant energy efficiency saving under EEP.
Accelerating the implementation of compulsory energy saving measures in order to align with the global improvement target of 3.4 per cent will further help Thailand to achieve a conditional NDC target. In the SDG scenario, total emissions will reach 201.7 MtCO2-e by 2030, corresponding to a 153.4 MtCO2-e (or a 43.2 per cent) reduction compared to the BAU scenario (figure ES 2).
Figure ES 2. Comparison of emissions, by scenario, 2021-2030
Achieving Thailand’s carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero GHG emissions by 2065 targets
A well-planned and concerted effort must be undertaken by the Government of Thailand to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero emissions by 2065. Achievement of these two targets, particularly the Net Zero Emissions target, will require decarbonization of the energy sector. This is best done in the following two steps – (a) decarbonizing the power sector and (b) switching all energy consumption to renewables and electricity. Fortunately, the energy system of Thailand is well-positioned for an accelerated decarbonization effort – many of the required net zero technologies, such as renewable power generation, electric cooking stoves and electric vehicles, are mature and readily available technologies. Thailand also has ambitious targets that will open sustainable energy development opportunities in the long term. For example, biofuel blending and 30 per cent electric vehicles by 2030 will open a pathway for a higher share of electric vehicles by 2050. Due to certain limitations to implementing measurements in the transport and industry sectors, however, a small number of emissions would still be produced. Therefore, carbon sinks, such as reforestation or forest management, or other carbon capture technologies should be considered for absorbing the remaining carbon emissions.
[1] Historical trend projection based on the year 2000 access rate data provided by ESCAP (2022) as well as the 2021 access rate provided by the national consultant (Bright Management Consulting).
[2] Thailand measures its energy intensity target in terms of final energy consumption, whereas in SDG 7 it is measured in terms of primary energy supply.
The Road Map sets out the following four key policy recommendations to help Thailand achieve the SDG 7 and NDC targets as well as reduce reliance on imported energy sources:
- Strong policy measures are required to address the gap in clean cooking by 2030. Achieving access to clean cooking fuels and technologies seems to be one of the remaining challenges. Adoption of electric cooking stoves in both urban and rural areas will significantly help improve clean cooking access. In the long term, the deployment of electric cooking stoves will also help Thailand achieve the carbon neutrality and net zero emissions targets. The cumulative cost of electric cooking stove deployment by 2030 would be US$ 265 million.
Accelerating the efficiency of energy use in all economic sectors should be pursued. The EEP will help Thailand achieve the energy efficiency target by 2037. Thailand can even contribute more to achieving the conditional NDC target by enhancing its energy efficiency targets to align it with the 3.4 per cent global improvement pathway. These can be done by accelerating the achievement of mandated targets, such as energy management standard and building energy codes, in the years to 2030.
Fuel switching strategies, including electrification, accelerate SDG 7 progress and provide multi-fold benefits in the long term. The electrification of end uses would be critical to decarbonize the entire economy by 2050. Since electrical equipment is more efficient compared to fossil-fuel based equipment, this will significantly reduce fossil fuel demand. Rapid adoption of electric vehicles, for example, reduces the demand for oil products, hence reducing Thailand’s reliance on imported petroleum fuels. In terms of renewable energy, the current AEDP will help the country to achieve the 30 per cent renewable target in final energy consumption by 2037. This target, however, must be further increased to reach almost 100 per cent by 2065. This level of ambition might be a challenge currently, but in the long term the improvement of technology would make it possible. Furthermore, electrification of energy demand as well as higher adoption of efficient systems will reduce the investment in renewable energy systems.
- Decarbonisation of the power supply provides the highest potential in GHG emission reduction as well as enables improvement of energy security. In both ambitious scenarios, a projected decrease in grid emissions can realize a substantial GHG emission reduction. Investments in coal-fired power generation are no longer cost-effective compared with renewables and should be discontinued in order to avoid emissions lock-in. NEXSTEP analysis suggests that lifecycle costs of renewables, such as hydropower, solar, wind and biomass, are cheaper than coal-fired technologies. In the long term, investment in system stability should be considered to support high penetration of renewable energy generation for the grid. However, the underlying financial risks of investment in coal-based power plants should not be ignored. Fulfilling the required capacities in carbon neutral and net zero scenarios could be challenging technically and economically, yet these investments will help to improve energy security through the utilization of indigenous resources.