Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions, and consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 and other SDGs. To address this challenge, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP).[1] This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
The City of Ormoc, in collaboration with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), has developed this Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) Road Map to identify technological options and policy measures that will help the city to navigate the transition of its energy sector in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
The Road Map presents three core scenarios (BAU, CPS and SDG) and one ambitious scenario (towards net zero carbon by 2050) that have been developed using local data, which consider existing energy policies and strategies and reflect on other development plans. The net zero carbon scenario by 2050 offers policymakers a strategic viewpoint on how Ormoc could plan for a carbon-free energy pathway in alignment with the global race to net zero carbon. These scenarios are expected to enable the city authority to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to navigate through the sustainable energy transition pathway.
The City of Ormoc, in collaboration with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), has developed this Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) Road Map to identify technological options and policy measures that will help the city to navigate the transition of its energy sector in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
The Road Map presents three core scenarios (BAU, CPS and SDG) and one ambitious scenario (towards net zero carbon by 2050) that have been developed using local data, which consider existing energy policies and strategies and reflect on other development plans. The net zero carbon scenario by 2050 offers policymakers a strategic viewpoint on how Ormoc could plan for a carbon-free energy pathway in alignment with the global race to net zero carbon. These scenarios are expected to enable the city authority to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to navigate through the sustainable energy transition pathway.
[1] The NEXSTEP tool has been specially designed to perform analyses of the energy sector in the context of SDG 7 and NDC, with the aim that the output will provide a set of policy recommendations to achieve the SDG 7 and NDC targets.
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Section 1
Title
Highlights of the Road Map
Content
In 2020, Ormoc’s population numbered 230,998 people, which comprised 56,048 households. The electrification rate in Ormoc had progressed to 100 per cent by 2020. On the other hand, about 15 per cent of the population, which corresponds to 8,407 households, still relied on unclean and polluting kerosene and biomass stoves as their primary cooking technology. Such practice exposes those people, mostly women, to negative health impacts. Well-planned and concerted efforts will be needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030.
Energy intensity, the indicator used to measure energy efficiency, was calculated as 6 MJ/USD2017 in 2020. For Ormoc City to contribute to the global target of energy efficiency improvement of 3.2 per cent reduction per year between now and 2030, this needs to be reduced to 4.35 MJ/US$2017 by 2030, which will require energy efficiency measures to be implemented across the entire demand sectors. The total primary energy supply in Ormoc was similar to its total final energy consumption (TFEC) of 64.2 ktoe, as local electricity generation was minimal. Ormoc is connected to the Visayas grid, importing almost all (~100 per cent) of its electricity demand from the central grid. A small amount of electricity was supplied through the installations of a 99.45 kWp rooftop solar system with 255 panels of solar Photovoltaic (PV) within the city boundary, with an estimated generation in 2020 of 139 MWh. Renewable energy delivered approximately 17.6 per cent of TFEC in 2020, including traditional biomass use for residential cooking. When traditional use of biomass is excluded, the RE share in TFEC is 6.2 per cent.
Energy intensity, the indicator used to measure energy efficiency, was calculated as 6 MJ/USD2017 in 2020. For Ormoc City to contribute to the global target of energy efficiency improvement of 3.2 per cent reduction per year between now and 2030, this needs to be reduced to 4.35 MJ/US$2017 by 2030, which will require energy efficiency measures to be implemented across the entire demand sectors. The total primary energy supply in Ormoc was similar to its total final energy consumption (TFEC) of 64.2 ktoe, as local electricity generation was minimal. Ormoc is connected to the Visayas grid, importing almost all (~100 per cent) of its electricity demand from the central grid. A small amount of electricity was supplied through the installations of a 99.45 kWp rooftop solar system with 255 panels of solar Photovoltaic (PV) within the city boundary, with an estimated generation in 2020 of 139 MWh. Renewable energy delivered approximately 17.6 per cent of TFEC in 2020, including traditional biomass use for residential cooking. When traditional use of biomass is excluded, the RE share in TFEC is 6.2 per cent.
Section 2
Title
Aligning the City of Ormoc’s energy transition pathway with the SDG 7 and NDC targets by 2030
Content
1. Universal access to modern energy
As of 2020, 100 per cent of Ormoc’s population already had access to electricity. However, 15 per cent of the population lacked access to clean cooking fuels and technologies. More attention is required to providing universal clean cooking access to the population of Ormoc. Nearly one-sixth of the population rely on unclean cooking fuel and technologies for household cooking, specifically traditional biomass stoves (14 per cent of households) and kerosene stoves (1 per cent of households). Phasing out of unclean cooking technologies will improve health and well-being of householders through reducing indoor air pollution as well as ensure gender empowered socio-economic development. Electric cooking stoves stand out as an appropriate long-term solution, due to their cost-effectiveness, zero air pollution and minimal maintenance. In addition, coupling this technology with a decarbonized electricity supply results in an overall zero-carbon cooking solution. However, considering the possible lack of sufficient power supply capacity for some households (i.e., households connected to mini-grid or solar home systems) to meet the power demand of electric stoves, LPG stoves may be an appropriate transitional technology for those households.
2. Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) in Ormoc was 6.2 per cent in 2020, excluding the traditional biomass usage. Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), the share of RE will increase to 9.3 per cent by 2030. This increase is driven by the high growth of the renewable energy share in grid electricity, which is projected to increase from 48.4[1] per cent in 2020 to 66.9 per cent in 2030, and a slight increase in biofuel usage in the transport sector. In the Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) scenario, the RE share in TFEC increases to 15.6 per cent. This additional increase of 6.3 percentage points from the CPS is a result both of increased use of RE due to a higher share of electricity in energy consumption and a further reduction in energy demand due to energy efficiency measures.
The RE share in TFEC for the Towards Net Zero (TNZ) by 2050 scenario is further increased to 28.4 per cent, as the scenario envisions a decarbonized electricity supply and aims to position the energy system towards achieving net-zero carbon. In the TNZ scenario, more electricity-based technologies are adopted in the transport and residential sectors, reducing overall energy demand and increasing renewable energy usage with a 100 per cent electricity supply. As described later in this Road Map, there are several pathways for achieving a decarbonized electricity supply, with the most promising and cost-effective one being through renewable energy auctions.
3. Energy efficiency
Ormoc’s energy intensity, a proxy measure for energy efficiency improvement, is estimated to have been 6 MJ/US$2017 in 2020. It is expected to be reduced to 5.39 MJ/US$2017 by 2030 in the CPS, as GDP growth outpaces the growth in energy demand. This corresponds to an annual energy efficiency improvement rate of 1.1 per cent.
The SET scenario proposes several energy-efficiency interventions across the demand sectors, which further decreases the energy intensity to 4.31 MJ/US$2017 by 2030. This corresponds to a 3.3 per cent reduction per annum, aligning with the suggested global annual improvement rate of 3.2 per cent(UNSD, 2021) . The transport sector accounted for around 69.6 per cent of the total energy demand in 2020, and energy efficiency measures in the sector may provide substantial savings. The Road Map proposes an increase of electric vehicle share in the transport fleet to 20 per cent by 2030. The projected result is a 13.3 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe) reduction in energy demand, compared with the CPS due the high efficiency of electric vehicles. Other measures include phasing out of inefficient lighting appliances in the residential sector. The phasing out of inefficient, polluting cooking technologies allows an estimated energy reduction of 7 ktoe, clearly demonstrating the positive interaction between clean cooking access and energy efficiency.
The energy demand reduction can be significant should Ormoc follow a net zero carbon pathway, as suggested in the TNZ scenario. The energy intensity in this scenario is projected to decline to 3.85 MJ/US$2017, corresponding to a 4.4 per cent energy efficiency improvement per annum.
4. Emissions
The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 are estimated to have been 164.2 ktCO2-e, when considering the direct fuel combustion and emissions attributable to the purchased (grid) electricity. Figure ES 1 shows the GHG emission trajectories for the different scenarios. In BAU, the emissions are projected to increase to 277 ktCO2-e by 2030. In CPS, emissions in 2030 will drop to 260.5 ktCO2-e, and will further decrease to 214.5 ktCO2-e in the SET scenario. A sharp decrease can be observed in the TNZ scenario, dropping to 160.4 ktCO2-e driven by the increased adoption of electricity-based technologies in the transport and residential sectors. This entails having 100 per cent electric vehicle sales[2] starting from 2030 onwards to reach a 100 per cent penetration rate by 2050 and phasing out of LPG stoves for residential cooking. In the agricultural sector, diesel-powered water pumps are replaced with solar irrigation systems. The remaining emissions are from the use of large-scale diesel-powered agricultural machinery (i.e., harvester, rotovators and tractors) where electric-powered versions have not yet reached the commercialization stage.
Figure ES 1. Comparison of emissions, by scenario, 2020-2030
As of 2020, 100 per cent of Ormoc’s population already had access to electricity. However, 15 per cent of the population lacked access to clean cooking fuels and technologies. More attention is required to providing universal clean cooking access to the population of Ormoc. Nearly one-sixth of the population rely on unclean cooking fuel and technologies for household cooking, specifically traditional biomass stoves (14 per cent of households) and kerosene stoves (1 per cent of households). Phasing out of unclean cooking technologies will improve health and well-being of householders through reducing indoor air pollution as well as ensure gender empowered socio-economic development. Electric cooking stoves stand out as an appropriate long-term solution, due to their cost-effectiveness, zero air pollution and minimal maintenance. In addition, coupling this technology with a decarbonized electricity supply results in an overall zero-carbon cooking solution. However, considering the possible lack of sufficient power supply capacity for some households (i.e., households connected to mini-grid or solar home systems) to meet the power demand of electric stoves, LPG stoves may be an appropriate transitional technology for those households.
2. Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) in Ormoc was 6.2 per cent in 2020, excluding the traditional biomass usage. Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), the share of RE will increase to 9.3 per cent by 2030. This increase is driven by the high growth of the renewable energy share in grid electricity, which is projected to increase from 48.4[1] per cent in 2020 to 66.9 per cent in 2030, and a slight increase in biofuel usage in the transport sector. In the Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) scenario, the RE share in TFEC increases to 15.6 per cent. This additional increase of 6.3 percentage points from the CPS is a result both of increased use of RE due to a higher share of electricity in energy consumption and a further reduction in energy demand due to energy efficiency measures.
The RE share in TFEC for the Towards Net Zero (TNZ) by 2050 scenario is further increased to 28.4 per cent, as the scenario envisions a decarbonized electricity supply and aims to position the energy system towards achieving net-zero carbon. In the TNZ scenario, more electricity-based technologies are adopted in the transport and residential sectors, reducing overall energy demand and increasing renewable energy usage with a 100 per cent electricity supply. As described later in this Road Map, there are several pathways for achieving a decarbonized electricity supply, with the most promising and cost-effective one being through renewable energy auctions.
3. Energy efficiency
Ormoc’s energy intensity, a proxy measure for energy efficiency improvement, is estimated to have been 6 MJ/US$2017 in 2020. It is expected to be reduced to 5.39 MJ/US$2017 by 2030 in the CPS, as GDP growth outpaces the growth in energy demand. This corresponds to an annual energy efficiency improvement rate of 1.1 per cent.
The SET scenario proposes several energy-efficiency interventions across the demand sectors, which further decreases the energy intensity to 4.31 MJ/US$2017 by 2030. This corresponds to a 3.3 per cent reduction per annum, aligning with the suggested global annual improvement rate of 3.2 per cent
The energy demand reduction can be significant should Ormoc follow a net zero carbon pathway, as suggested in the TNZ scenario. The energy intensity in this scenario is projected to decline to 3.85 MJ/US$2017, corresponding to a 4.4 per cent energy efficiency improvement per annum.
4. Emissions
The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 are estimated to have been 164.2 ktCO2-e, when considering the direct fuel combustion and emissions attributable to the purchased (grid) electricity. Figure ES 1 shows the GHG emission trajectories for the different scenarios. In BAU, the emissions are projected to increase to 277 ktCO2-e by 2030. In CPS, emissions in 2030 will drop to 260.5 ktCO2-e, and will further decrease to 214.5 ktCO2-e in the SET scenario. A sharp decrease can be observed in the TNZ scenario, dropping to 160.4 ktCO2-e driven by the increased adoption of electricity-based technologies in the transport and residential sectors. This entails having 100 per cent electric vehicle sales[2] starting from 2030 onwards to reach a 100 per cent penetration rate by 2050 and phasing out of LPG stoves for residential cooking. In the agricultural sector, diesel-powered water pumps are replaced with solar irrigation systems. The remaining emissions are from the use of large-scale diesel-powered agricultural machinery (i.e., harvester, rotovators and tractors) where electric-powered versions have not yet reached the commercialization stage.
Figure ES 1. Comparison of emissions, by scenario, 2020-2030
[1] Based on the DOE 2020 Power Statistics, gross generation per grid, by plant type.
[2] Electric vehicle sales rate is defined as the proportion of the number of electric vehicles compared to the total sales of vehicles in the area. Meanwhile, the electric vehicle penetration rate indicates the proportion of the number of electric vehicles compared to the total on-the-road vehicle in the area.
Section 3
Title
Important policy directions
Content
The Road Map sets out the following five key policy recommendations to help Ormoc city achieve the SDG 7 targets as well as reduce reliance on imported energy sources:
- Strong policy measures are required to address the remaining gap in clean cooking by 2030. NEXSTEP proposes electric cooking stoves as a long-term clean technology substitute. LPG stoves are a strong contender; however, electric cooking stoves are more cost-effective and cleaner in terms of household indoor air pollution. In addition, the use of electric cooking stoves paves the way towards net zero emissions when the electricity supply is decarbonized. LPG stoves may, however, be promoted for households that lack sufficient power supply capacity, i.e., households utilizing decentralised renewable energy systems. The cost of deployment of clean cooking stoves would be $US1.9 million (US$ 0.8 million for LPG cooking stoves and US$ 1.1 million for electric cooking stoves);
- Increasing the efficiency of energy use in the transport and residential sectors should be pursued, and transport electrification strategies provide multi-fold benefits in the long term. The transport sector is the highest energy-consuming sector in Ormoc. Therefore, the encouragement of public transportation use can be considered. Total energy saving potential in the transport sector between 2023 and 2030 will be 19.3 ktoe with 53.3 ktCO2-e of emission reduction. Vigorous adoption of electric vehicles reduces the demand for oil products, hence reducing Ormoc’s reliance on petroleum fuel. At the same time, it can contribute to climate mitigation and improve local air quality. An adoption rate of 20 per cent for passenger cars, motorcycles and freight trucks by 2030 has the potential to cumulatively save energy by 34.4 ktoe and reduce emissions by 153.7 ktCO2-e under the SET scenario between 2023 and 2030.
- Raising the RE share in electricity supply through urban RE electricity generation, PPA and RE auctions. Among the options for increasing the RE generation share, RE auctions provide the best financial case and financial savings due to low solar PV generation costs. In addition, solar rooftops would be a more feasible option. Fulfilling 50 per cent of electricity demand from solar rooftops will save around US$ 5.5 million in 2025 and around US$ 10.7 million in 2030 under the TNZ scenario. The required rooftop area will be around 73,202 m2 by 2030. The opportunity for utilizing the biomass resource potential of the city for energy generation can also be explored.
- Moving towards net-zero carbon. A net-zero society requires a concerted effort, both by the city authorities and citizens. Total decarbonization of the power supply is essential, while increased electrification in the demand sectors is required, including phasing out of internal combustion engine vehicles, LPG stoves and diesel-powered water pumps. In this net zero scenario, the market sales of electric vehicles should be 100 per cent starting from 2030 onwards to reach a 100 per cent penetration rate by 2050.