Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions, and consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) and other SDGs. To address this challenge, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP).[1] This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
The key objective of this SDG 7 roadmap[2] is to assist the Government of Fiji to develop enabling policy measures to achieve the SDG7 targets. This roadmap contains a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider. Using national data, existing energy policies and strategies as well as other development plans, the NEXSTEP tool has developed seven scenarios for Fiji. These are the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, current policy scenario, SDG scenario and four ambitious scenarios that look beyond achieving SDG7.
The key objective of this SDG 7 roadmap[2] is to assist the Government of Fiji to develop enabling policy measures to achieve the SDG7 targets. This roadmap contains a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider. Using national data, existing energy policies and strategies as well as other development plans, the NEXSTEP tool has developed seven scenarios for Fiji. These are the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, current policy scenario, SDG scenario and four ambitious scenarios that look beyond achieving SDG7.
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Section 1
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A. Highlights of the Roadmap
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Fiji has been making good progress towards achieving the SDG7 targets, but more needs to be done to achieve all SDG7 targets by 2030 through a concerted effort and the establishment of an enabling policyframework. Fiji is close to achieving universal access to electricity – only 4 per cent of its population was still to be connected in 2018, and are likely to receive access by 2024.
Universal access to clean cooking technology and fuel, however, remains a challenge; about half of Fiji’s population was still relying on unclean cooking technology in 2018. While Fiji has been making steadyprogress in recent years, more efforts will be needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030 through the development and implementation of targeted policy measures.
Likewise, energy efficiency improvement needs to be boosted across different sectors in order to achieve a 2.9 per cent annual improvement, reducing energy intensity to 2.18 megajoules per US Dollar GDP (measured in constant terms at 2011 PPP) by 2030.
As an island nation, which is currently heavily reliant on imported energy resources, energy security is high on Fiji’s agenda. Therefore, key aims of the country should include diversification of the power generation mix, with a focus on indigenous sources (i.e., solar and hydro) and a reduction in the reliance on imported petroleum fuel. This aligns with the SDG7 target for renewable energy, as such a goal will require the share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) to grow significantly from the 2018 share of 9.4 per cent (excluding traditional biomass). Moreover, the levelized cost of electricity from renewable power technologies has experienced a steep decline in the past decade, becoming economically more competitive than the conventional fossil fuel-based technologies.
This offers Fiji an economically feasible solution to transition its energy sector to a low-carbon energy future while achieving the SDG7 targets and improving energy security. Under current policies, the country is on track to meet the unconditional emissions reduction target of 10 per cent compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario pledged under the Paris Agreement. The policies outlined under the SDG scenario would allow Fiji to achieve an emission reduction of 21 per cent, compared to the BAU scenario. The NEXSTEP analysis shows that the emissions reduction in this scenario would be achieved mostly by increasing the shares of fuel-efficient vehicles (i.e., hybrid) and RE in the power sector.
Universal access to clean cooking technology and fuel, however, remains a challenge; about half of Fiji’s population was still relying on unclean cooking technology in 2018. While Fiji has been making steadyprogress in recent years, more efforts will be needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030 through the development and implementation of targeted policy measures.
Likewise, energy efficiency improvement needs to be boosted across different sectors in order to achieve a 2.9 per cent annual improvement, reducing energy intensity to 2.18 megajoules per US Dollar GDP (measured in constant terms at 2011 PPP) by 2030.
As an island nation, which is currently heavily reliant on imported energy resources, energy security is high on Fiji’s agenda. Therefore, key aims of the country should include diversification of the power generation mix, with a focus on indigenous sources (i.e., solar and hydro) and a reduction in the reliance on imported petroleum fuel. This aligns with the SDG7 target for renewable energy, as such a goal will require the share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) to grow significantly from the 2018 share of 9.4 per cent (excluding traditional biomass). Moreover, the levelized cost of electricity from renewable power technologies has experienced a steep decline in the past decade, becoming economically more competitive than the conventional fossil fuel-based technologies.
This offers Fiji an economically feasible solution to transition its energy sector to a low-carbon energy future while achieving the SDG7 targets and improving energy security. Under current policies, the country is on track to meet the unconditional emissions reduction target of 10 per cent compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario pledged under the Paris Agreement. The policies outlined under the SDG scenario would allow Fiji to achieve an emission reduction of 21 per cent, compared to the BAU scenario. The NEXSTEP analysis shows that the emissions reduction in this scenario would be achieved mostly by increasing the shares of fuel-efficient vehicles (i.e., hybrid) and RE in the power sector.
Section 2
Title
B. Achieving Fiji's SDG7 and NDC targets by 2030
Content
1. Universal access to electricity
Around 4 per cent of Fiji’s population lacked access to electricity in 2018, primarily in rural or maritime areas and informal settlements. Achieving universal access to electricity is a priority for the Government of Fiji. The National Development Plan (Government of Fiji, 2017) states the objective is to reach a rate of 100 per cent by 2021. However, in consideration of the adverse impacts from the COVID-19 crisis and Cyclone Yasa, the Cabinet has readjusted the 2021 objective to an open-ended timeline.
Based on a continuation of the historical improvement trend between 2007 and 2018, the NEXSTEP analysis indicates that the remaining population will receive access by 20243 under the BAU scenario. The NEXSTEP analysis suggests that mini/off-grid systems technologies (i.e., solar mini-grid and solar home systems) would be the more appropriate technologies, based on the technology’s cost effectiveness and climate resiliency, while allowing faster implementation.
2. Universal access to clean cooking
In 2018, 51 per cent4 of the population of Fiji was still reliant on unclean cooking fuel and technology, exposing them to poor indoor air quality and associated negative health impacts. A steady increase in the clean cooking access rate has been observed over the past decade, with an average addition of 1.7 per cent of the population gaining access each year. Nonetheless, based on the historical improvement trend between 2007 and 2018, it is projected that 28 per cent of Fiji’s population will not have access to clean cooking by 2030.
The Government of Fiji has launched the Rocket Wood Stove Initiative, which aims to distribute cleaner, energy efficient rocket wood stoves to 60,000 households (UNFCC, 2021; and FBC News, 2020). It is expected that this initiative will bring the clean cooking access rate to 100 per cent by 2030, as modelled in the current policy scenario. Nevertheless, NEXSTEP suggests that electric cooking stoves and LPG stoves may provide the better alternatives as long-term solutions. Research has shown that improved cooking stoves (i.e., rocket wood stoves) require continual monitoring and follow-up to facilitate long-term adoption. Moreover, the low electricity tariff in Fiji also results in better affordability for electric stoves. Considering the lack of indigenous fossil fuel resources and domestic LPG production, electric cooking stoves are a better option than LPG cooking stoves for Fiji, as this reduces the reliance on imported fuels. However, considering the possible lack of sufficient power supply capacity for some households (i.e., households connected to mini-grid or solar home systems) to meet the power demand of electric stoves, LPG stoves may be the most appropriate technology for some households.
3. Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 9.45 per cent (“modern renewables”, excluding traditional biomass) in 2018, or 11.4 per cent if traditional biomass usage is also considered. Based on the current policies, the share of renewable energy will increase to 14 per cent by 2030. The increase is due to the projected increase in the share of renewable electricity as per the current power expansion plan for 2020-2030, which is expected to increase the share of RE-based grid generation from 59 per cent of electricity in 2018 to 71 per cent in 2030. In the SDG scenario, the share of renewable energy is further improved to 14.5 per cent of TFEC in 2030. The additional 0.5 percentage point increase can be attributed to the application of several energy efficiency measures, which are projected to reduce TFEC by 56 ktoe, compared to the current policy settings.
4. Energy efficiency
Energy Intensity in Fiji declined at an average annual rate of 2.22 per cent between 1990 and 2010. A doubling of the 1990-2010 improvement rate is required to achieve the SDG 7.3 target, corresponding to an average annual rate of 4.44 per cent between 2018 and 2030. Consequently, the energy intensity in 2030 should be 1.80 MJ/USD2011. This is an ambitious target for Fiji, which will be difficult to achieve in the short term, even with ambitious energy efficiency improvement measures. Therefore, NEXSTEP analysis suggests that Fiji’s energy intensity target should be aligned with the global target of 2.9 per cent annual improvement. This corresponds to a 2030 energy intensity target of 2.18 MJ/USD2011.
Under the current policy settings, the energy intensity is projected to drop to 2.37 MJ//USD2011.Further effort is required to reach the proposed energy intensity target. There are ample opportunities for Fiji to achieve this target as well as implement a higher rate of improvement. These include, for example, introducing minimum energy performance standard (MEPS) for household appliances, rapid adoption of more efficient vehicles, and by energy efficiency measures in the marine transport sector.
5. Nationally Determined Contribution
Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) document pledges an unconditional target of 10 per cent reduction and a conditional target of 30 per cent reduction (compared to the BAU scenario) by 2030. As similarly noted in the document, a 20 per cent reduction is possible through a 100 per cent renewable share in the power sector, while a further 10 per cent can be realised with economy-wide energy efficiency measures.
Under the current policy settings, Fiji is likely to meet the unconditional target of 10 per cent reduction. Emissions in the current policy scenario will reach 1,811 thousand tCO2-e (ktCO2-e) by 2030, a 13 per cent reduction from the baseline. The SDG scenario is modelled to reach both the SDG energy intensity target and the NDC target. Correspondingly, the emissions will be 1,649 ktCO2-e in 2030, a 21 per cent reduction from the baseline. Figure ES3 shows the emission trajectories of the main scenarios.
Around 4 per cent of Fiji’s population lacked access to electricity in 2018, primarily in rural or maritime areas and informal settlements. Achieving universal access to electricity is a priority for the Government of Fiji. The National Development Plan (Government of Fiji, 2017) states the objective is to reach a rate of 100 per cent by 2021. However, in consideration of the adverse impacts from the COVID-19 crisis and Cyclone Yasa, the Cabinet has readjusted the 2021 objective to an open-ended timeline.
Based on a continuation of the historical improvement trend between 2007 and 2018, the NEXSTEP analysis indicates that the remaining population will receive access by 20243 under the BAU scenario. The NEXSTEP analysis suggests that mini/off-grid systems technologies (i.e., solar mini-grid and solar home systems) would be the more appropriate technologies, based on the technology’s cost effectiveness and climate resiliency, while allowing faster implementation.
2. Universal access to clean cooking
In 2018, 51 per cent4 of the population of Fiji was still reliant on unclean cooking fuel and technology, exposing them to poor indoor air quality and associated negative health impacts. A steady increase in the clean cooking access rate has been observed over the past decade, with an average addition of 1.7 per cent of the population gaining access each year. Nonetheless, based on the historical improvement trend between 2007 and 2018, it is projected that 28 per cent of Fiji’s population will not have access to clean cooking by 2030.
The Government of Fiji has launched the Rocket Wood Stove Initiative, which aims to distribute cleaner, energy efficient rocket wood stoves to 60,000 households (UNFCC, 2021; and FBC News, 2020). It is expected that this initiative will bring the clean cooking access rate to 100 per cent by 2030, as modelled in the current policy scenario. Nevertheless, NEXSTEP suggests that electric cooking stoves and LPG stoves may provide the better alternatives as long-term solutions. Research has shown that improved cooking stoves (i.e., rocket wood stoves) require continual monitoring and follow-up to facilitate long-term adoption. Moreover, the low electricity tariff in Fiji also results in better affordability for electric stoves. Considering the lack of indigenous fossil fuel resources and domestic LPG production, electric cooking stoves are a better option than LPG cooking stoves for Fiji, as this reduces the reliance on imported fuels. However, considering the possible lack of sufficient power supply capacity for some households (i.e., households connected to mini-grid or solar home systems) to meet the power demand of electric stoves, LPG stoves may be the most appropriate technology for some households.
3. Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 9.45 per cent (“modern renewables”, excluding traditional biomass) in 2018, or 11.4 per cent if traditional biomass usage is also considered. Based on the current policies, the share of renewable energy will increase to 14 per cent by 2030. The increase is due to the projected increase in the share of renewable electricity as per the current power expansion plan for 2020-2030, which is expected to increase the share of RE-based grid generation from 59 per cent of electricity in 2018 to 71 per cent in 2030. In the SDG scenario, the share of renewable energy is further improved to 14.5 per cent of TFEC in 2030. The additional 0.5 percentage point increase can be attributed to the application of several energy efficiency measures, which are projected to reduce TFEC by 56 ktoe, compared to the current policy settings.
4. Energy efficiency
Energy Intensity in Fiji declined at an average annual rate of 2.22 per cent between 1990 and 2010. A doubling of the 1990-2010 improvement rate is required to achieve the SDG 7.3 target, corresponding to an average annual rate of 4.44 per cent between 2018 and 2030. Consequently, the energy intensity in 2030 should be 1.80 MJ/USD2011. This is an ambitious target for Fiji, which will be difficult to achieve in the short term, even with ambitious energy efficiency improvement measures. Therefore, NEXSTEP analysis suggests that Fiji’s energy intensity target should be aligned with the global target of 2.9 per cent annual improvement. This corresponds to a 2030 energy intensity target of 2.18 MJ/USD2011.
Under the current policy settings, the energy intensity is projected to drop to 2.37 MJ//USD2011.Further effort is required to reach the proposed energy intensity target. There are ample opportunities for Fiji to achieve this target as well as implement a higher rate of improvement. These include, for example, introducing minimum energy performance standard (MEPS) for household appliances, rapid adoption of more efficient vehicles, and by energy efficiency measures in the marine transport sector.
5. Nationally Determined Contribution
Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) document pledges an unconditional target of 10 per cent reduction and a conditional target of 30 per cent reduction (compared to the BAU scenario) by 2030. As similarly noted in the document, a 20 per cent reduction is possible through a 100 per cent renewable share in the power sector, while a further 10 per cent can be realised with economy-wide energy efficiency measures.
Under the current policy settings, Fiji is likely to meet the unconditional target of 10 per cent reduction. Emissions in the current policy scenario will reach 1,811 thousand tCO2-e (ktCO2-e) by 2030, a 13 per cent reduction from the baseline. The SDG scenario is modelled to reach both the SDG energy intensity target and the NDC target. Correspondingly, the emissions will be 1,649 ktCO2-e in 2030, a 21 per cent reduction from the baseline. Figure ES3 shows the emission trajectories of the main scenarios.
Section 3
Title
C. Important policy directions
Content
The roadmap sets out four key policy recommendations to help Fiji achieve the SDG 7 targets as well as enhance energy security:
- Ramping up of renewable power capacity is cost-effective and contributes to both climate and sustainability objectives. Renewable power has become cheaper than conventional fossil fuel-based generation. Least-cost optimization analysis suggests that an early ramp-up of renewable power generation and reducing fossil-fuel-based generation to a minimum provide a larger financial benefit and pave the path towards a 100 per cent renewable power goal by 2036.
- Promotion of electric cooking stoves and LPG stoves as long-term solutions to achieving universal clean cooking access. NEXSTEP proposes electric cooking stoves and LPG stoves as alternative technologies to the rocket wood stove, as they require minimal follow-up and allow a substantial reduction of indoor air pollution. The choice between electric cooking stoves and LPG stoves is dependent on the household power supply capacity. Implementation of this programme will cost the Government of Fiji US$2.4 million to US$3.4 million to achieve universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030.
- A multi-sectoral approach should be taken to realise energy efficiency improvement potential. Ample energy saving opportunities can be found in the residential, commercial and transport sectors. Policies such as appliance minimum energy performance standard and labelling scheme as well as building codes should be considered in order to leverage the energy reduction potential while providing positive financial gains.
- Transport sector energy efficiency measures are the key to achieving substantial energy savings and emissions reduction. The transport sector has the highest share of energy demand, largely relying on imported oil products. Progressive transport policies, such as minimum fuel economy standards and increasing the share of hybrid vehicles, should be considered in order to reach the SDG energy efficiency and NDC conditional targets, while enhancing energy independence.