Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions and, more importantly, consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) and other SDGs. In this connection, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP). This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as emission reduction targets (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
Recognising the imperativeness of subregional efforts in supporting the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the national commitment towards the Paris Agreement, this initiative has been applied to several cities and subregions. ESCAP is also supporting Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy in its “Energy for ALL” programme, by furthering the NEXSTEP initiative to three Thailand provinces. This Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) roadmap, developed for the province of Chiang Rai, identifies the technological options and policy measures that will help the province navigates the transition of its energy sector in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
Recognising the imperativeness of subregional efforts in supporting the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the national commitment towards the Paris Agreement, this initiative has been applied to several cities and subregions. ESCAP is also supporting Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy in its “Energy for ALL” programme, by furthering the NEXSTEP initiative to three Thailand provinces. This Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) roadmap, developed for the province of Chiang Rai, identifies the technological options and policy measures that will help the province navigates the transition of its energy sector in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
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Section 1
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A. Highlights of the Roadmap
Content
Province of Chiang Rai is the Thailand’s northernmost province. It is distinguished by its remote hill tribes who live in mountainous terrain accessible by trekking. Chiang Rai city, on the Mae Kok Rive, has a well-known night market and the White Template, a modern Buddhist shrine with quirky modern sculptures and murals. With a total land area of 11,678 km2, Chiang Rai has a population of around 1.3 million in 2018. The gross provincial product (GPP) in 2018 was 107.3 billion Baht and the GPP per capita was around 93 thousand Baht.
This SET roadmap has two main objectives. Firstly, it aims to establish scenario baseline for the year 2019-2030, considering the current policy settings. Secondly, it identifies the measures and technological options that could raise Chiang Rai’s efforts to align with the SDG 7 targets, national targets, as well as achieving deep decarbonisation of its energy system. The four scenarios that are presented in detail in this roadmap are:
This SET roadmap has two main objectives. Firstly, it aims to establish scenario baseline for the year 2019-2030, considering the current policy settings. Secondly, it identifies the measures and technological options that could raise Chiang Rai’s efforts to align with the SDG 7 targets, national targets, as well as achieving deep decarbonisation of its energy system. The four scenarios that are presented in detail in this roadmap are:
- The current policy scenario (CPS), which has been developed based on existing policies and plans and used to identify the gaps in existing initiatives in aligning with the SDG 7 targets and national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
- The sustainable energy transition (SET) scenario presents technological options and policy measures that will help the city to align its development with the SDG 7 targets and national targets
- The Sustainable Transport Strategies (STS) explores how the province can further transition its transport sector through a greater degree of mass public transport and electric vehicles usage.
- The Towards Net Zero (TNZ) scenario, the most ambitious scenario, looks at a pathway of moving towards a net zero society in the near future, through decarbonising the electricity supply, fuel substitution and more ambitious electrification.
Section 2
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B. Aligning Province of Chiang Rai’s energy transition pathway with the SDG 7 targets and national commitments
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Access to Modern Energy
Chiang Rai has already achieved universal access to electricity, while the clean cooking access rate is estimated at 75.6 per cent in 2018. This includes the 8.9 per cent of households that do not conduct cooking at home. The remaining 24.4 per cent of the population, which corresponds to approximately 136.3 thousand households, relied on traditional charcoal stove which contributes significantly towards indoor air pollution and associated health impacts. The national clean cooking access rate has been improving with an annual rate of 0.6 per cent during the 2015-2019 period. Assuming the same rate, the access to clean cooking in Chiang Rai is expected to reach 81 per cent in 2030. To achieve the SDG 7.1.2 target. NEXSTEP suggests that ICS stove may be promoted to the households in closing the clean cooking gap.
Renewable Energy
The share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 9.6 per cent in 2018. This low share is due to very high petroleum fuel consumption in the transport sector which is about 72.6 per cent of the entire energy demand. This share is way below the national renewable energy target, 30 per cent of TFEC, set for the year 2037. Under the CPS, the share of RE will increase to 12.5 per cent by 2030. The increase in the RE share under the current policies is driven by the high growth of renewable energy share in grid electricity, which is projected to increase from 17.8 per cent in 2019 to 24.6 per cent in 2030, and a slight increase in biofuel usage in the transport sector. In the SET scenario, RE share in TFEC will decrease slightly to 12.2 per cent due to reduced biomass consumption for cooking in the urban areas and reduced biofuel consumption in the transport sector. The RE share will increase to 12.9 per cent in the STS scenario due to reduced petroleum consumption in the transport sector.
The RE share in TFEC for the TNZ scenario is expected to be high which envisioned a decarbonised electricity supply. Apart from a decarbonised electricity supply, the TNZ scenario also aims to increase the pace towards net-zero carbon through fuel substitution and higher rate of electrification, reaching a RE share of 47.4 per cent in 2030. As later described in the roadmap, there are several pathways in achieving a decarbonised electricity supply, with the most promising and cost effective one being through renewable energy auction.
Energy Efficiency
Chiang Rai’s energy Intensity is estimated at 6.12 ktoe/billion baht2010 (in terms of TFEC) in 2018. It is expected to reduce to 5.83 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030 in the CPS, as GDP growth outpaces the growth in energy demand. With this reduction, Chiang Rai will have achieved the national energy efficiency target of 5.98 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2037. The SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency interventions across the demand sectors, which further decreases the energy intensity to 4.55 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030, helping Chiang Rai achieve the energy efficiency target for SDG 7. The transport sector made 73 per cent of the total energy demand 2018 which is expected to be 75 per cent in 2030. This points to the need for adoption of energy efficiency measures across the sector. NEXSTEP proposes an increase of electric vehicle share in the transport fleet to between 25 to 50 per cent, by 2030. This will result in a reduction of 174 ktoe in energy demand from the CPS due the high efficiency of electric vehicles. Energy savings can also be sought from the residential and commercial sectors.
The energy demand reduction can be remarkable, should Chiang Rai consider a higher ambition for its transport sector, specifically, expanding mass public transport and electric vehicle adoption. The energy intensity of STS scenario is projected to reduce to 4.08 ktoe/billion baht2010. The energy intensity of TNZ scenario is projected to be 3.5 ktoe/billion baht2010.
GHG emissions
The GHG emissions in 2018 are estimated at 1.92 MTCO2-e, which considers the direct fuel combustion from the demand sector and emissions attributable to the grid electricity. ES 1 shows the GHG emission trajectories for the different scenarios. The GHG emissions from the CPS is projected to reach 2.57 MTCO2-e, while it is further decreased to 2.08 MTCO2-e in the SET scenario. The latter corresponds to a 25 per cent reduction from a BAU baseline, aligning the province’s GHG emission reduction with the unconditional NDC target. More ambitious sustainable transport strategies further reduce the emissions to 1.91 MTCO2-e in the SET scenario, while drastic decrease can be observed in the TNZ scenario – only 0.85 MTCO2-e with a fully decarbonised electricity supply.
Figure ES 1 Comparison of emissions by scenarios 2018-2030
Chiang Rai has already achieved universal access to electricity, while the clean cooking access rate is estimated at 75.6 per cent in 2018. This includes the 8.9 per cent of households that do not conduct cooking at home. The remaining 24.4 per cent of the population, which corresponds to approximately 136.3 thousand households, relied on traditional charcoal stove which contributes significantly towards indoor air pollution and associated health impacts. The national clean cooking access rate has been improving with an annual rate of 0.6 per cent during the 2015-2019 period. Assuming the same rate, the access to clean cooking in Chiang Rai is expected to reach 81 per cent in 2030. To achieve the SDG 7.1.2 target. NEXSTEP suggests that ICS stove may be promoted to the households in closing the clean cooking gap.
Renewable Energy
The share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 9.6 per cent in 2018. This low share is due to very high petroleum fuel consumption in the transport sector which is about 72.6 per cent of the entire energy demand. This share is way below the national renewable energy target, 30 per cent of TFEC, set for the year 2037. Under the CPS, the share of RE will increase to 12.5 per cent by 2030. The increase in the RE share under the current policies is driven by the high growth of renewable energy share in grid electricity, which is projected to increase from 17.8 per cent in 2019 to 24.6 per cent in 2030, and a slight increase in biofuel usage in the transport sector. In the SET scenario, RE share in TFEC will decrease slightly to 12.2 per cent due to reduced biomass consumption for cooking in the urban areas and reduced biofuel consumption in the transport sector. The RE share will increase to 12.9 per cent in the STS scenario due to reduced petroleum consumption in the transport sector.
The RE share in TFEC for the TNZ scenario is expected to be high which envisioned a decarbonised electricity supply. Apart from a decarbonised electricity supply, the TNZ scenario also aims to increase the pace towards net-zero carbon through fuel substitution and higher rate of electrification, reaching a RE share of 47.4 per cent in 2030. As later described in the roadmap, there are several pathways in achieving a decarbonised electricity supply, with the most promising and cost effective one being through renewable energy auction.
Energy Efficiency
Chiang Rai’s energy Intensity is estimated at 6.12 ktoe/billion baht2010 (in terms of TFEC) in 2018. It is expected to reduce to 5.83 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030 in the CPS, as GDP growth outpaces the growth in energy demand. With this reduction, Chiang Rai will have achieved the national energy efficiency target of 5.98 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2037. The SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency interventions across the demand sectors, which further decreases the energy intensity to 4.55 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030, helping Chiang Rai achieve the energy efficiency target for SDG 7. The transport sector made 73 per cent of the total energy demand 2018 which is expected to be 75 per cent in 2030. This points to the need for adoption of energy efficiency measures across the sector. NEXSTEP proposes an increase of electric vehicle share in the transport fleet to between 25 to 50 per cent, by 2030. This will result in a reduction of 174 ktoe in energy demand from the CPS due the high efficiency of electric vehicles. Energy savings can also be sought from the residential and commercial sectors.
The energy demand reduction can be remarkable, should Chiang Rai consider a higher ambition for its transport sector, specifically, expanding mass public transport and electric vehicle adoption. The energy intensity of STS scenario is projected to reduce to 4.08 ktoe/billion baht2010. The energy intensity of TNZ scenario is projected to be 3.5 ktoe/billion baht2010.
GHG emissions
The GHG emissions in 2018 are estimated at 1.92 MTCO2-e, which considers the direct fuel combustion from the demand sector and emissions attributable to the grid electricity. ES 1 shows the GHG emission trajectories for the different scenarios. The GHG emissions from the CPS is projected to reach 2.57 MTCO2-e, while it is further decreased to 2.08 MTCO2-e in the SET scenario. The latter corresponds to a 25 per cent reduction from a BAU baseline, aligning the province’s GHG emission reduction with the unconditional NDC target. More ambitious sustainable transport strategies further reduce the emissions to 1.91 MTCO2-e in the SET scenario, while drastic decrease can be observed in the TNZ scenario – only 0.85 MTCO2-e with a fully decarbonised electricity supply.
Figure ES 1 Comparison of emissions by scenarios 2018-2030
Section 3
Title
C. Important policy directions
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As above described, there are ample of opportunities for Chiang Rai to transform its energy system in alignment with the national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement. The key policy recommendations to help Chiang Rai in its sustainable energy transition, include:
- Sustainable transport strategies should be pursued, including expansion of mass public transport and transport electrification. This shall bring multitude benefits, such as reduce road traffic congestion (with mass public transport), energy demand and GHG emissions. More can be done to encourage such transition, e.g. expanding EV charging and public transport infrastructure.
- Decarbonisation of the power supply provides the highest potential in GHG emission reduction. Several pathways can be considered such as solar rooftop and RE auction, which may be the most cost-effective and efficient solution. Chiang Rai government should consider working with the national government to identify modalities to implement RE auction at the local level.
- Raised ambitions, particularly a higher level of electrification and a net-zero power sector puts Chiang Rai on path of a net-zero trajectory. National government should support this direction by introducing enabling policy measures e.g. mandating development and implementation of provincial net zero plans.