Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions and, more importantly, consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) and other SDGs. In this connection, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP). This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as emission reduction targets (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
Recognising the imperativeness of subregional efforts in supporting the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the national commitment towards the Paris Agreement, this initiative has been applied to several cities and subregions. ESCAP is also supporting Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy in its “Energy for ALL” programme, by furthering the NEXSTEP initiative to three Thailand provinces. This Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) roadmap, developed for the province of Udon Thani, identifies the technological options and policy measures that will help the province navigates the transition of its energy sector in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
Recognising the imperativeness of subregional efforts in supporting the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the national commitment towards the Paris Agreement, this initiative has been applied to several cities and subregions. ESCAP is also supporting Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy in its “Energy for ALL” programme, by furthering the NEXSTEP initiative to three Thailand provinces. This Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) roadmap, developed for the province of Udon Thani, identifies the technological options and policy measures that will help the province navigates the transition of its energy sector in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
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Section 1
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A. Highlights of the Roadmap
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The Province of Udon Thani is located on a plateau which is approximately 187 meters above sea level. Most of the area is covered with rice fields, forests, and hills; the Phu Pan mountain range and the Songkhram River are the provinces two primary natural attractions. It is bordered by the provinces of Nong Khai to the north, Sakon Kakhon to the east, Kalasin province to the southeast, Khon Kaen to the south, and Loei and Nong Bua Lamphu to the west. Udon Thani is also famous for its natural tourist attractions and local products like Pha Khid or patterned silk weaving. Local communities are also very charming with simple way of living. The province has an area of 11,072 km2. The total forest area is 1,131 km2 or 10.2 per cent of provincial area. Udon Thani had a population of 1.57 million in 2018. The gross provincial product (GPP) in 2018 was 113.9 billion Baht and the GDP per capita was around 72.6 thousand Baht.
This SET roadmap has two main objectives. Firstly, it aims to establish scenario baseline for the year 2019-2030, considering the current policy settings. Secondly, it identifies the measures and technological options that could raise Udon Thani’s efforts to align with the SDG 7 targets, national targets, as well as achieving deep decarbonisation of its energy system. The three scenarios that are presented in detail in this roadmap are:
This SET roadmap has two main objectives. Firstly, it aims to establish scenario baseline for the year 2019-2030, considering the current policy settings. Secondly, it identifies the measures and technological options that could raise Udon Thani’s efforts to align with the SDG 7 targets, national targets, as well as achieving deep decarbonisation of its energy system. The three scenarios that are presented in detail in this roadmap are:
- The current policy scenario (CPS), which has been developed based on existing policies and plans and used to identify the gaps in existing initiatives in aligning with the SDG 7 targets and national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
- The sustainable energy transition (SET) scenario presents technological options and policy measures that will help the city to align its development with the SDG 7 targets and national targets
- The Towards Net Zero (TNZ) scenario, the most ambitious scenario, looks at a pathway of moving towards a net zero society in the near future, through decarbonising the electricity supply, fuel substitution and more ambitious electrification.
Section 2
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B. Aligning Province of Udon Thani’s energy transition pathway with the SDG 7 targets and national commitments
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Access to Modern Energy
Udon Thani has already achieved universal access to electricity, while the clean cooking access rate is estimated at 62.8 per cent in 2018. This includes the 5.1 per cent of households that do not conduct cooking at home. The remaining 37.2 per cent of the population, which corresponds to approximately 169,599 households, relied on traditional charcoal stove which contributes significantly towards indoor air pollution and associated health impacts. The national clean cooking access rate has been improving with an annual rate of 0.6 per cent during the 2015-2019 period. Continuing with a similar trajectory, it is estimated that Udon Thani will achieve 67.3 per cent access rate by 2030.
Renewable Energy
The share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 41.5 per cent in 2018. All scenarios are projected to meet the national renewable energy target, 30 per cent of TFEC, set for the year 2037. Under the CPS, the share of RE will increase to 44.6 per cent by 2030. The increase in the RE share under the current policies is driven by the high growth of renewable energy share in grid electricity, which is projected to increase from 17.8 per cent in 2019 to 24.6 per cent in 2030, and a slight increase in biofuel usage in the transport sector. In the SET scenario, RE share in TFEC will increase to 44.6 per cent. As later described, the SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency measures in aligning the province’s energy demand reduction and GHG emissions reduction with the national targets.
The RE share in TFEC for the TNZ scenario is expected to be high which envisioned a decarbonised electricity supply. Apart from a decarbonised electricity supply, the TNZ scenario also aims to increase the pace towards net-zero carbon through fuel substitution and higher rate of electrification, reaching a RE share of 64.4 per cent in 2030. As later described in the roadmap, there are several pathways in achieving a decarbonised electricity supply, with the most promising and cost effective one being through renewable energy auction.
Energy Efficiency
Udon Thani’s energy Intensity is estimated at 8.91 ktoe/billion baht2010 (in terms of TFEC) in 2018. It is expected to reduce to 8.62 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030 in the CPS, as GDP growth outpaces the growth in energy demand. This corresponds to an annual improvement rate of 0.26 per cent. The SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency interventions across the demand sectors, which further decreases the energy intensity to 6.6 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030, putting Udon Thani on path in meeting the national energy efficiency target of 5.98 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2037. The industry sector made up around 41.9 per cent of the total energy demand 2018, and adoption of energy efficiency measures across the sector is expected to provide a substantial savings of about 146 ktoe. NEXSTEP proposes an increase of electric vehicle share in the transport fleet to between 15 to 100 per cent, by 2030. The projected result is 128 ktoe reduction in energy demand from the CPS due the high efficiency of electric vehicles. Energy savings can also be sought from the residential and commercial sectors. The proposed measures are further detailed in Chapter 4. The energy intensity of TNZ scenario is projected to be 6.62 ktoe/billion baht2010.
GHG emissions
The GHG emissions in 2018 are estimated at 1.85 MTCO2-e, which considers the direct fuel combustion from the demand sector and emissions attributable to the grid electricity. ES 1 shows the GHG emission trajectories for the different scenarios. The GHG emissions from the CPS is projected to reach 2.34 MTCO2-e, while it is further decreased to 1.97 MTCO2-e in the SET scenario. The latter corresponds to a 24 per cent reduction from a BAU scenario, aligning the province’s GHG emission reduction with the unconditional NDC target. Drastic drop of emissions can be observed in the TNZ scenario – only 1.09 MTCO2-e with a fully decarbonised electricity supply.
Figure ES 1 Comparison of emissions by scenarios 2018-2030
Udon Thani has already achieved universal access to electricity, while the clean cooking access rate is estimated at 62.8 per cent in 2018. This includes the 5.1 per cent of households that do not conduct cooking at home. The remaining 37.2 per cent of the population, which corresponds to approximately 169,599 households, relied on traditional charcoal stove which contributes significantly towards indoor air pollution and associated health impacts. The national clean cooking access rate has been improving with an annual rate of 0.6 per cent during the 2015-2019 period. Continuing with a similar trajectory, it is estimated that Udon Thani will achieve 67.3 per cent access rate by 2030.
Renewable Energy
The share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 41.5 per cent in 2018. All scenarios are projected to meet the national renewable energy target, 30 per cent of TFEC, set for the year 2037. Under the CPS, the share of RE will increase to 44.6 per cent by 2030. The increase in the RE share under the current policies is driven by the high growth of renewable energy share in grid electricity, which is projected to increase from 17.8 per cent in 2019 to 24.6 per cent in 2030, and a slight increase in biofuel usage in the transport sector. In the SET scenario, RE share in TFEC will increase to 44.6 per cent. As later described, the SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency measures in aligning the province’s energy demand reduction and GHG emissions reduction with the national targets.
The RE share in TFEC for the TNZ scenario is expected to be high which envisioned a decarbonised electricity supply. Apart from a decarbonised electricity supply, the TNZ scenario also aims to increase the pace towards net-zero carbon through fuel substitution and higher rate of electrification, reaching a RE share of 64.4 per cent in 2030. As later described in the roadmap, there are several pathways in achieving a decarbonised electricity supply, with the most promising and cost effective one being through renewable energy auction.
Energy Efficiency
Udon Thani’s energy Intensity is estimated at 8.91 ktoe/billion baht2010 (in terms of TFEC) in 2018. It is expected to reduce to 8.62 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030 in the CPS, as GDP growth outpaces the growth in energy demand. This corresponds to an annual improvement rate of 0.26 per cent. The SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency interventions across the demand sectors, which further decreases the energy intensity to 6.6 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030, putting Udon Thani on path in meeting the national energy efficiency target of 5.98 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2037. The industry sector made up around 41.9 per cent of the total energy demand 2018, and adoption of energy efficiency measures across the sector is expected to provide a substantial savings of about 146 ktoe. NEXSTEP proposes an increase of electric vehicle share in the transport fleet to between 15 to 100 per cent, by 2030. The projected result is 128 ktoe reduction in energy demand from the CPS due the high efficiency of electric vehicles. Energy savings can also be sought from the residential and commercial sectors. The proposed measures are further detailed in Chapter 4. The energy intensity of TNZ scenario is projected to be 6.62 ktoe/billion baht2010.
GHG emissions
The GHG emissions in 2018 are estimated at 1.85 MTCO2-e, which considers the direct fuel combustion from the demand sector and emissions attributable to the grid electricity. ES 1 shows the GHG emission trajectories for the different scenarios. The GHG emissions from the CPS is projected to reach 2.34 MTCO2-e, while it is further decreased to 1.97 MTCO2-e in the SET scenario. The latter corresponds to a 24 per cent reduction from a BAU scenario, aligning the province’s GHG emission reduction with the unconditional NDC target. Drastic drop of emissions can be observed in the TNZ scenario – only 1.09 MTCO2-e with a fully decarbonised electricity supply.
Figure ES 1 Comparison of emissions by scenarios 2018-2030
Section 3
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C. Important policy directions
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As above described, there are ample of opportunities for Udon Thani to transform its energy system in alignment with the national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement. The key policy recommendations to help Udon Thani in its sustainable energy transition, include:
- Adoption of energy efficiency measures across all industrial sub-sectors can realised a deep reduction in energy demand. Provincial government may consider providing financial incentives in encouraging a widespread adoption of industrial best practices.
- Decarbonisation of the power supply provides the highest potential in GHG emission reduction. Several pathways can be considered such as solar rooftop and RE auction, which may be the most cost-effective and efficient solution. Udon Thani government should consider working with the national government to identify modalities to implement RE auction at the local level.
- Raised ambitions, particularly a higher level of electrification and a net-zero power sector puts Udon Thani on path of a net-zero trajectory. National government should support this direction by introducing enabling policy measures e.g., mandating development and implementation of provincial net zero plans.