Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It requires sustaining economic growth, responding to increasing energy demand, reducing emissions, and considering and capitalizing on the interlinkages between SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy and the other SDGs. To address this challenge, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP). This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as those of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (held in April 2018, in Bangkok) and the Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
This SDG 7 Road Map examines the current status of the national energy sector and existing policies, compares them with the SDG 7 targets and presents different scenarios highlighting technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government of Timor-Leste to consider. The key objective is to assist the Government in developing enabling policy measures to achieve the SDG 7 targets through a matrix of technological options and policy actions. The Road Map introduces three key scenarios: the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario; the current policy scenario (CPS); and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) scenario. These scenarios are expected to enable the Government to make informed decisions for developing and implementing a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, together with the NDCs.
The NEXSTEP tool has been specially designed to perform analyses of the energy sector in the context of SDG 7 and NDC, with the aim that the output will provide a set of policy recommendations to achieve the SDG 7 and NDC targets.
Achieving universal access to electricity is a priority for the Government which aims to reach a 100 per cent access rate by 2030. In 2021, 97 per cent of the population of Timor-Leste had access to electricity, which is an indication that the country is on track to achieve universal access by 2030. However, universal access to clean cooking technology and fuel has been and is expected to remain limited under the current policy scenario (CPS). In 2021,14.3 per cent of the population had access to clean cooking technology and this rate is estimated to increase to 28.5 per cent by 2030, in the current policy context, leaving about 1 million people still relying on unclean fuel for cooking in 2030. Therefore, well-planned and concerted efforts will be needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030.
While Timor-Leste produces a substantial amount of energy resources (oil and gas), these are exported and the country meets its domestic energy needs through imports. As an island nation heavily reliant on imported energy resources, energy security remains high on the country’s development agenda. Therefore, key aims should include diversification of the power generation mix, with a focus on indigenous sources (such as solar and wind), and a reduction in the reliance on imported petroleum fuel. This aligns with the SDG7 target on renewable energy, as achieving this goal will require the share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) to grow significantly from the 2021 share of 0.1 per cent (excluding traditional biomass).
Furthermore, improvements in energy efficiency are required across different sectors, as energy intensity in Timor-Leste declined at an average annual rate of 2.4 per cent between 2002 and 2010. To achieve national targets, an average annual increase rate of 4.8 per cent will be needed between 2010 and 2030.
1. Universal access to electricity
In 2021, the electrification rate in Timor-Leste was 97 per cent. Based on the historical trend, it is expected that universal access to electricity will be achieved by 2030. The Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030 aims to provide electricity access for all households either through the conventional expansion of the national grid system or using renewable energy systems by 2030 (Timor-Leste, 2011). NEXSTEP analysis suggests that mini/off-grid technologies, such as solar mini-grid and solar home systems are the more appropriate technologies, given their cost-effectiveness, climate resilience and potential to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.
2. Universal access to clean cooking technology
Access to clean cooking fuels and technologies in Timor-Leste has been and is expected to remain low in the absence of concerted efforts from all stakeholders. Under the current policy scenario, access to clean cooking is projected to reach only 28.5 per cent in 2030 from 14.3 per cent in 2021 (figure I). This would leave about 1 million people (or just over 200,000 households) still relying on polluting solid fuel stoves (assuming biomass as the primary fuel) for cooking in 2030,exposing them to harmful household air pollution and increasing the risks of non-communicable diseases such as strokes, ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer, particularly among women and children (WHO, 2024).
Figure I. Access to clean cooking under the business-as-usual (BAU), current policy (CP) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) scenarios in Timor-Leste
Source: ESCAP.
Note: BAU = business-as-usual scenario; CPS = current policy scenario; SDG = Sustainable Development Goals scenario
NEXSTEP identifies electric cooking stoves as the most appropriate solution for Timor-Leste, given their cost and environmental effectiveness, particularly in urban areas. In locations where access to reliable electricity supply might be difficult, improved cooked stoves (ICS) can serve as a transitional technology until suitable electricity networks become available.
3. Renewable energy
In 2021, the share of modern renewable energy (excluding traditional biomass usage in residential cooking) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 0.04 per cent. Based on the current policy scenario, the share of renewable energy is projected to increase to 17.9 per cent by 2030 due to the projected increase in renewable electricity. In the SDG scenario, the share of renewable energy is projected to improve to 25.5 per cent of TFEC in 2030. The additional 7.6 percentage point increase can be attributed to the phase-out of traditional biomass use and the application of several energy efficiency measures.
4. Energy efficiency
A doubling of the 1990-2010 improvement rate is required to achieve the SDG 7.3 target. Since Timor-Leste gained independence in 2002, the improvement rate has been calculated for the period between 2002 and 2010. During this time, energy intensity in Timor-Leste declined at an average annual rate of 2.4 per cent. Therefore, achieving the SDG 7.3 target requires an average annual increase rate of 4.8 per cent between 2010 and 2030.
Under the current policy scenario, the energy intensity is projected to drop from 1.8 MJ/USD2017 in 2021 to 1.6 MJ/USD2017 in 2030. The energy efficiency target is met under the SDG scenario, reaching 1.3 MJ/USD2017 by 2030. This is primarily due to the phase-out of inefficient cooking technologies and their replacement with more efficient LPG stoves and ICS. In addition, further reductions in energy intensity can be achieved through the proposed measures for the residential and transport sectors. Increasing the adoption of minimum energy performance standards and labelling (MEPSL) for lighting, refrigeration and air-conditioning. Introducing electric vehicles for government ministries can also be a viable solution for Timor-Leste to reduce overall energy demand.
5. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
In its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Timor-Leste chose not to set a GHG reduction target and instead committed to activities that would reduce emissions in sectors including transport, agriculture, forestry, energy and waste. Under the BAU scenario, emissions are expected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 3.7 per cent. In the SDG scenario, total emissions are expected to be 643.7 ktCO2-e by 2030. This corresponds to a 495.4 ktCO2-e (or a 43.5 per cent) reduction compared to the BAU scenario (figure II).
Figure II. Comparison of emissions, by scenario, 2021-2030
Source: ESCAP.
Note: BAU = business-as-usual scenario; CPS = current policy scenario; SDG = Sustainable Development Goals scenario
Historical trend projection is based on the access rate data for the year 2000, provided by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), “Asia Pacific Energy Portal”, 2022a. The 2021 access rate was provided by the national consultant.
This Road Map sets out the following four key policy recommendations to help Timor-Leste achieve the SDG 7 targets as well as reduce reliance on imported energy sources:
- Adopt strong policy measures to address the gaps in access to clean cooking by 2030. Achieving universal access to clean cooking technologies remains one of the biggest challenges for Timor-Leste. Expanding the adoption of electric cook stoves and ICS in both urban and rural areas would significantly help improve access to clean cooking. The combined cost of deploying electric cook stoves and ICS is estimated to be US$ 20.8 million by 2030.
- Increase the efficiency of energy use in residential and commercial sectors. Ample energy saving opportunities are available in the residential and commercial sectors. Policies such as appliance MEPSL schemes, as well as building codes, should be considered to leverage the potential for energy reduction, while providing positive financial gains.
- Implement energy efficiency measures in the transport sector and advance e-mobility as key strategies for achieving substantial energy savings and emissions reductions. The transport sector accounts for the highest share of energy demand, largely relying on imported oil products. To achieve SDG energy efficiency targets and enhance energy security, progressive transport policies should be considered, such as adopting minimum fuel economy standards, increasing the utilization of public transport, encouraging cycling and walking, and maintaining passenger vehicles regularly.
- Decarbonize the power supply as a key strategy to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Decarbonizing the power sector is important to prevent emissions from shifting between sectors when implementing policies, particularly those related to clean cooking and electric vehicles. This would also be essential if the country plans to move towards carbon neutrality or net zero by 2050.