Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions, and consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between SDG 7 and other SDGs. To address this challenge, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP).[1] This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
The key objective of this SDG 7 Road Map[2] is to assist the Government of Kiribati to develop enabling policy measures to achieve the SDG 7 targets. This Road Map contains a matrix of technological options and enabling-policy measures for the Government of Kiribati to consider. It presents three scenarios (BAU, CPS and SDG scenarios) that have been developed using national data, which consider existing energy policies and strategies and reflect on other development plans. These scenarios are expected to enable the Government to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, together with the NDC.
[1] The NEXSTEP tool has been specially designed to perform analyses of the energy sector in the context of SDG 7 and NDC, with the aim that the output will provide a set of policy recommendations to achieve the SDG 7 and NDC targets.
[2] This Road Map examines the current status of the national energy sector and existing policies, compares them with the SDG 7 targets, and presents different scenarios highlighting technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider.
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Section 1
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A. Highlights of the Road Map
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In 2021, 90.8 per cent of Kiribati’s population had access to electricity. However, only 35 per cent households were connected to grid electricity and 54.7 per cent had solar home systems that are used to operate only lights. These 54.7 per cent or 12,815 households need to be provided with grid quality electricity to enable them use electricity for more productive use. Universal access to clean cooking technology and fuel has been, and is likely to remain very low under the current policy scenario. It was 14.1 per cent in 2021, and estimated to increase to 65.5 per cent by 2030 in the current policy context. It remains a challenge for the country’s 34.5 per cent of the population who will still rely on polluting cooking fuels and technology in 2030. Well-planned and concerted efforts will be needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030.
As an island nation, which is currently heavily reliant on imported energy resources, energy security is high on Kiribati’s development agenda. Therefore, key aims of the country should include diversification of the power generation mix, with a focus on indigenous sources (i.e., solar and wind) and a reduction in the reliance on imported petroleum fuel. This aligns with the SDG7 target for renewable energy, as such a goal will require the share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) to grow significantly from the 2021 share of 0.4 per cent (excluding traditional biomass).
Furthermore, energy efficiency improvement needs to be boosted across different sectors since energy intensity in Kiribati increased significantly from 6.8 MJ/US$2017 (GDP measured in constant terms at 2017 PPP) in 2010 to 8.4 MJ/US$2017 in 2021. It is suggested that the country adopts the global improvement rate of 3.4 per cent.
As an island nation, which is currently heavily reliant on imported energy resources, energy security is high on Kiribati’s development agenda. Therefore, key aims of the country should include diversification of the power generation mix, with a focus on indigenous sources (i.e., solar and wind) and a reduction in the reliance on imported petroleum fuel. This aligns with the SDG7 target for renewable energy, as such a goal will require the share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) to grow significantly from the 2021 share of 0.4 per cent (excluding traditional biomass).
Furthermore, energy efficiency improvement needs to be boosted across different sectors since energy intensity in Kiribati increased significantly from 6.8 MJ/US$2017 (GDP measured in constant terms at 2017 PPP) in 2010 to 8.4 MJ/US$2017 in 2021. It is suggested that the country adopts the global improvement rate of 3.4 per cent.
Section 2
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B. Achieving Kiribati’s SDG 7 and NDC targets by 2030
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1. Universal access to electricity
Achieving universal access to electricity is a priority for the Government of Kiribati. The Kiribati Integrated Energy Roadmap (KIER) 2017-2025 (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2017) states the objective to reach a rate of 100 per cent by 2025. However, due to a slower rate of electrification since COVID-19, it is expected that the 100 per cent access rate will be achieved in 2030. The NEXSTEP analysis suggests that mini/off-grid systems technologies (i.e., solar mini-grid and solar home systems) would be the more appropriate technologies, based on the technology’s cost-effectiveness and climate resiliency, while allowing faster implementation.
2. Universal access to clean cooking technology
Under the current policy setting, the clean cooking access is projected to reach only 65.5 per cent in 2030 from 14.1 per cent in 2021 (figure ES 1). This leaves more than one-third of households still relying on polluting solid fuel stoves (assuming biomass as the primary fuel) in 2030. This will expose the population to negative health impacts, including non-communicable diseases such as stroke, ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer, particularly among women and children (World Health Organization, 2022a). In a worst-case business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where the current implementation is being halted, the clean cooking access might be as low as 22.1 per cent.
Figure: Kiribati’s access to clean cooking under the BAU, CPS and SDG scenarios[1]
NEXSTEP suggests that liquified petroleum gas (LPG) stoves and improved cooking stoves (ICS) may provide the better alternatives as long-term solutions. Considering a cleaner energy source, LPG stoves may be the most appropriate technology for some households. However, considering the lack of indigenous fossil fuel resources and domestic LPG production, ICS are a better option than LPG cooking stoves for Kiribati, as this reduces the reliance on imported fuels.
3. Renewable energy
The share of modern renewable energy (excluding traditional biomass usage in residential cooking) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 0.4 per cent in 2021. Based on current policies, the share of renewable energy is projected to increase to 11.8 per cent by 2030. The increase is due to the projected increase in renewable electricity. In the SDG scenario, the share of renewable energy is projected to improve to 34.9 per cent of TFEC in 2030. The additional 23.1 percentage point increase can be attributed to the phasing out of traditional biomass usage as well as the application of several energy efficiency measures, which are projected to reduce TFEC by 6.7 ktoe, compared with the current policy settings.
4. Energy efficiency
A doubling of the 1990-2010 improvement rate is required to achieve the SDG 7.3 target. However, energy intensity in Kiribati increased at an average annual rate of 1.46 per cent from 5.1 MJ/US$2017 in 1990 to 6.8 MJ/US$2017 in 2020. The energy intensity increased further in 2021 at 8.4 MJ/US$2017 due to the increasing energy demand and the contraction of GDP during the pandemic. It is, therefore, suggested that Kiribati follow the global improvement rate of 3.4 per cent (figure ES 2).
Source: Calculated based on data from the Asia-Pacific Energy Portal (ESCAP, 2022a).
Under the current policy settings, the energy intensity is projected to drop to 6.6 MJ/USD2017. The energy efficiency target is met under the SDG scenario, reaching 5.6 MJ/2017 by 2030. This is primarily due to the phase-out of inefficient cooking technologies and replacement with more efficient LPG stoves and ICS. In addition, further energy intensity reduction can be realised through the additional proposed measures for residential and transport sectors. Increasing the adoption of minimum energy performance standards and labelling (MEPSL) for lighting, refrigeration and air-conditioning as well as introducing electric vehicles for government ministries can be a viable solution for Kiribati to reduce the energy demand.
5. Nationally determined contribution
Kiribati’s intended nationally determined contribution(Government of Kiribati, 2016) sets ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 13.7 per cent by 2025 and by 12.8 by 2030 compared to a BAU scenario. Subject to international assistance, Kiribati aims to reduce its emissions by 61.8 per cent by 2030.
Using the energy sector emissions projection for 2030 from the INDC document, the unconditional and conditional targets for the energy sector are estimated to be 3.8 per cent and 52.8 per cent, respectively. Figure ES 3 shows that this reduction in emissions is set to be achieved through an improved energy mix and green transportation.
Figure: Comparison of emissions, by scenario, 2021-2030
Achieving universal access to electricity is a priority for the Government of Kiribati. The Kiribati Integrated Energy Roadmap (KIER) 2017-2025 (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2017) states the objective to reach a rate of 100 per cent by 2025. However, due to a slower rate of electrification since COVID-19, it is expected that the 100 per cent access rate will be achieved in 2030. The NEXSTEP analysis suggests that mini/off-grid systems technologies (i.e., solar mini-grid and solar home systems) would be the more appropriate technologies, based on the technology’s cost-effectiveness and climate resiliency, while allowing faster implementation.
2. Universal access to clean cooking technology
Under the current policy setting, the clean cooking access is projected to reach only 65.5 per cent in 2030 from 14.1 per cent in 2021 (figure ES 1). This leaves more than one-third of households still relying on polluting solid fuel stoves (assuming biomass as the primary fuel) in 2030. This will expose the population to negative health impacts, including non-communicable diseases such as stroke, ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer, particularly among women and children (World Health Organization, 2022a). In a worst-case business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where the current implementation is being halted, the clean cooking access might be as low as 22.1 per cent.
Figure: Kiribati’s access to clean cooking under the BAU, CPS and SDG scenarios[1]
NEXSTEP suggests that liquified petroleum gas (LPG) stoves and improved cooking stoves (ICS) may provide the better alternatives as long-term solutions. Considering a cleaner energy source, LPG stoves may be the most appropriate technology for some households. However, considering the lack of indigenous fossil fuel resources and domestic LPG production, ICS are a better option than LPG cooking stoves for Kiribati, as this reduces the reliance on imported fuels.
3. Renewable energy
The share of modern renewable energy (excluding traditional biomass usage in residential cooking) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 0.4 per cent in 2021. Based on current policies, the share of renewable energy is projected to increase to 11.8 per cent by 2030. The increase is due to the projected increase in renewable electricity. In the SDG scenario, the share of renewable energy is projected to improve to 34.9 per cent of TFEC in 2030. The additional 23.1 percentage point increase can be attributed to the phasing out of traditional biomass usage as well as the application of several energy efficiency measures, which are projected to reduce TFEC by 6.7 ktoe, compared with the current policy settings.
4. Energy efficiency
A doubling of the 1990-2010 improvement rate is required to achieve the SDG 7.3 target. However, energy intensity in Kiribati increased at an average annual rate of 1.46 per cent from 5.1 MJ/US$2017 in 1990 to 6.8 MJ/US$2017 in 2020. The energy intensity increased further in 2021 at 8.4 MJ/US$2017 due to the increasing energy demand and the contraction of GDP during the pandemic. It is, therefore, suggested that Kiribati follow the global improvement rate of 3.4 per cent (figure ES 2).
Source: Calculated based on data from the Asia-Pacific Energy Portal (ESCAP, 2022a).
Under the current policy settings, the energy intensity is projected to drop to 6.6 MJ/USD2017. The energy efficiency target is met under the SDG scenario, reaching 5.6 MJ/2017 by 2030. This is primarily due to the phase-out of inefficient cooking technologies and replacement with more efficient LPG stoves and ICS. In addition, further energy intensity reduction can be realised through the additional proposed measures for residential and transport sectors. Increasing the adoption of minimum energy performance standards and labelling (MEPSL) for lighting, refrigeration and air-conditioning as well as introducing electric vehicles for government ministries can be a viable solution for Kiribati to reduce the energy demand.
5. Nationally determined contribution
Kiribati’s intended nationally determined contribution
Using the energy sector emissions projection for 2030 from the INDC document, the unconditional and conditional targets for the energy sector are estimated to be 3.8 per cent and 52.8 per cent, respectively. Figure ES 3 shows that this reduction in emissions is set to be achieved through an improved energy mix and green transportation.
Figure: Comparison of emissions, by scenario, 2021-2030
[1] Historical trend projection based on the year 2000 access rate data provided by ESCAP (2022a) as well as the 2021 access rate provided by the national consultant.
Section 3
Title
C. Important policy directions
Content
The Road Map sets out the following four key policy recommendations to help Kiribati achieve the SDG 7 targets as well as reduce reliance on imported energy sources:
- Strong policy measures are required to address the large gap in clean cooking by 2030. Achieving access to clean cooking fuels and technologies seems to be one of the biggest challenges for Kiribati. Adoption of LPG stoves and ICS in both urban and rural areas will significantly help to improve clean cooking access. In the long term, electric cooking stoves can be considered when their price becomes more affordable. The cost of deployment of LPG would require US$ 1.74 million, whereas the deployment of ICS would need US$ 0.79 million. Therefore, the total cost of clean cooking access would be US$ 2.53 million by 2030.
- Increasing the efficiency of energy use in all economic sectors should be pursued. The residential sector is the highest energy-consuming sector in Kiribati. Therefore, the adoption of MEPSL for lighting and refrigeration can be considered. Doubling the MEPS adoption rate from 30 per cent to 60 per cent and introducing MEPSL for electric fans and television in the residential sector can be implemented to achieve a more sustainable target, with an energy saving potential of 0.27 ktoe, and reduce emissions by 2.4 ktCO2-e. The commercial and industrial sectors would have significant emission reduction potential through the improvement in cooling systems by 0.15 ktCO2-e.
- Energy efficiency and electric vehicle strategies provide multi-fold benefits in the long term. The transport sector would have potential savings through fuel economy improvement for both passenger cars and motorcycles as well as introducing electric vehicles for government ministries while simultaneously encouraging the use of public transportation. Furthermore, routine maintenance and inspection for maritime transport will be beneficial to improve energy efficiency. Total energy saving potential in the transport sector will be 1.8 ktoe with 5.3 ktCO2-e of emission reduction. These measures can be coupled with adoption of electric vehicles to reduce the demand for oil products, hence reducing Kiribati’s reliance on imported petroleum fuels. At the same time, it can contribute to climate mitigation and improve local air quality. An adoption rate of 5 per cent for passenger cars by 2030 can be introduced as a starting point in Kiribati, particularly on government fleets.
- Increasing renewable in the power supply provides the highest potential in GHG emission reduction as well as improves energy security. A projected decrease in grid emissions due to the implementation of renewable energy can realise a substantial GHG emission reduction. The deployment of solar PV system (ground, floating, and rooftop) will help to improve energy security through the utilization of indigenous resources.