Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions, and consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) and other SDGs. To address this challenge, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP).[1] This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
The key objective of this SDG 7 Road Map[2] is to assist the Government of Pakistan to develop enabling policy measures to achieve the SDG 7 targets. This Road Map contains a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government of Pakistan to consider. It presents three core scenarios (BAU, CPS, and SDG scenarios) and two ambitious scenarios that have been developed using national data, and which consider existing energy policies and strategies, and reflect on other development plans. These scenarios are expected to enable the Government to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, together with the NDC..
The key objective of this SDG 7 Road Map[2] is to assist the Government of Pakistan to develop enabling policy measures to achieve the SDG 7 targets. This Road Map contains a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government of Pakistan to consider. It presents three core scenarios (BAU, CPS, and SDG scenarios) and two ambitious scenarios that have been developed using national data, and which consider existing energy policies and strategies, and reflect on other development plans. These scenarios are expected to enable the Government to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, together with the NDC..
[1] The NEXSTEP tool has been specially designed to perform analyses of the energy sector in the context of SDG 7 and NDC, with an aim that the output will provide a set of policy recommendations to achieve the SDG 7 and NDC targets.
[2] This Road Map examines the current status of the national energy sector and existing policies, compares them with the SDG 7 targets, and presents different scenarios highlighting technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider.
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Section 1
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A. Highlights of the Roadmap
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In 2021 93.6 per cent of Pakistan’s population has access to electricity (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2021) . However, only 77 per cent of the population had access to grid electricity. Based on the historical trend, it is estimated that Pakistan will achieve universal access to electricity by 2027. Universal access to clean cooking technology and fuel, however, has been and is likely to remain very low under the current policy scenario (it was 49.3 per cent in 2021, and estimated to increase to 59.2 per cent by 2030). It remains a challenge for the country’s 40.8 percent of population who will still rely on polluting cooking fuels and technology in 2030. Well-planned and concerted efforts will be needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030.
Pakistan has abundant renewable energy resources: in addition to its large hydropower resources, it has also significant potential of solar PV, wind and biomass. Pakistan has a target of 20 per cent on-grid renewable generation by capacity (excluding hydropower) by the year 2025 and at least 30 per cent by 2030. In terms of petroleum resources, Pakistan has limited petroleum fuel resources and thus requires import of oil products and natural gas to meet its increasing demand in the transport, industry and power sector. The NEXSTEP analysis has examined the potential for diversifying the energy sources, e.g., by increasing renewable energy technologies, both on the demand and supply sides.
Energy intensity, the indicator used to measure energy efficiency, has been decreasing from 5.1 MJ/USD2017 in 2010 and reached 4.8 MJ/USD2017 in 2021(ESCAP, 2022) . To achieve the SDG 7 target for energy efficiency, this needs to be reduced to 4.1 MJ/USD2017 by 2030, which will require energy efficiency measures to be implemented across the entire demand sectors. With comprehensive power demand planning, Pakistan has the potential to provide carbon-free electricity to fuel its society by leveraging its abundant hydropower and rich renewable energy potential.
Pakistan has abundant renewable energy resources: in addition to its large hydropower resources, it has also significant potential of solar PV, wind and biomass. Pakistan has a target of 20 per cent on-grid renewable generation by capacity (excluding hydropower) by the year 2025 and at least 30 per cent by 2030. In terms of petroleum resources, Pakistan has limited petroleum fuel resources and thus requires import of oil products and natural gas to meet its increasing demand in the transport, industry and power sector. The NEXSTEP analysis has examined the potential for diversifying the energy sources, e.g., by increasing renewable energy technologies, both on the demand and supply sides.
Energy intensity, the indicator used to measure energy efficiency, has been decreasing from 5.1 MJ/USD2017 in 2010 and reached 4.8 MJ/USD2017 in 2021
Section 2
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B. Achieving Pakistan's SDG 7 and NDC targets by 2030
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1. Universal access to modern energy
Pakistan is yet to achieve universal access to electricity. Based on the historical trend, however, it is estimated that Pakistan will achieve universal access to electricity by 2027. On the other hand, more than 50 per cent of the population in Pakistan relied on polluting cooking fuel and technology in 2021. This exposes the population to negative health impacts, including noncommunicable diseases including stroke, ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer, particularly among women and children(World Health Organization, 2022) . As there are currently no governmental policies or initiatives in progressing clean cooking, based on the historical improvement trend between 2000 and 2020, it is projected to reach 59.2 per cent by 2030 (Figure ES 1). This leaves around 40.8 per cent of households still relying on polluting solid fuel stoves (assuming biomass as primary fuel) in 2030. The NEXSTEP analysis suggests that electric cooking stoves would be the most suitable long-term solution to closing the remaining gap in urban areas while improved cooking stove would be appropriate for rural areas.
Figure ES 1. Pakistan’s access to clean cooking under the BAU, CPS and SDG scenarios[1]
2. Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy (excluding traditional biomass usage in residential cooking and heating) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 3.2 per cent in 2021. Based on current policies, the share of renewable energy is projected to increase to 6.8 per cent by 2030. The increase is due to the projected increase both in renewable electricity and other renewable energy consumption (excluding traditional use of biomass). In the SDG scenario, the share of renewable energy is projected to improve to 23.5 per cent of TFEC in 2030. This improvement is largely due to the phasing out of traditional biomass usage in cooking and heating, which will substantially decrease TFEC, enabling the share of RE to rise.
3. Energy efficiency
Pakistan’s energy intensity in 2021 is estimated to have been 4.80 MJ/USD2017. Energy intensity in Pakistan declined at an average annual rate of 0.55 per cent between 1990 and 2010. A doubling of the 1990-2010 improvement rate is required in order to achieve the SDG 7.3 target, which requires an average annual rate increase of 1.11 per cent between 2010 and 2030. This corresponds to a 2030 energy intensity target of 4.08 MJ/USD2017 (Figure ES 2).
Figure ES 2. Pakistan energy efficiency target
Calculated based on data from the Asia Pacific Energy Portal (ESCAP, 2022)
Under the current policy settings, the energy intensity is projected to drop to 4.47 MJ/US$2017. The energy efficiency target is met under the SDG scenario, reaching 3.97 MJ/US$2017 by 2030. This is primarily due to the phase-out of inefficient cooking and heating technologies, which are replaced with more efficient electric cooking stoves, improved cooking stoves, and cleaner heating stoves. In addition, further energy intensity reduction can be realised through increased adoption of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS), encouragement of public transport use, improvement of passenger car fuel economy, and adoption of the zig-zag brick kiln.
4. Nationally Determined Contribution
Pakistan’s updated nationally determined contribution (Government of Pakistan, 2021a) sets a target of an overall 50 per cent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions below BAU between 2015 and 2030, with a 15 per cent reduction using the country’s own resources (known as the unconditional target), and an additional 35 per cent subject to international financial support (known as the conditional target).
Using energy sector emissions projection for 2030 from the INDC document (56 per cent), the unconditional and conditional targets for the energy sector are estimated at 8.4 per cent and 28 per cent respectively. Figure ES 3 shows that this reduction in emissions is set to be achieved through an improved energy mix, green transportation, a pledge to build no new coal power plants and a ban on the use of imported coal for energy generation. The unconditional NDC target is met in CPS and SDG scenarios while the conditional NDC target is met in the decarbonisation of power sector scenario.
Figure ES 3. Comparison of emissions, by scenario, 2021-2030
Pakistan is yet to achieve universal access to electricity. Based on the historical trend, however, it is estimated that Pakistan will achieve universal access to electricity by 2027. On the other hand, more than 50 per cent of the population in Pakistan relied on polluting cooking fuel and technology in 2021. This exposes the population to negative health impacts, including noncommunicable diseases including stroke, ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer, particularly among women and children
Figure ES 1. Pakistan’s access to clean cooking under the BAU, CPS and SDG scenarios[1]
2. Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy (excluding traditional biomass usage in residential cooking and heating) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 3.2 per cent in 2021. Based on current policies, the share of renewable energy is projected to increase to 6.8 per cent by 2030. The increase is due to the projected increase both in renewable electricity and other renewable energy consumption (excluding traditional use of biomass). In the SDG scenario, the share of renewable energy is projected to improve to 23.5 per cent of TFEC in 2030. This improvement is largely due to the phasing out of traditional biomass usage in cooking and heating, which will substantially decrease TFEC, enabling the share of RE to rise.
3. Energy efficiency
Pakistan’s energy intensity in 2021 is estimated to have been 4.80 MJ/USD2017. Energy intensity in Pakistan declined at an average annual rate of 0.55 per cent between 1990 and 2010. A doubling of the 1990-2010 improvement rate is required in order to achieve the SDG 7.3 target, which requires an average annual rate increase of 1.11 per cent between 2010 and 2030. This corresponds to a 2030 energy intensity target of 4.08 MJ/USD2017 (Figure ES 2).
Figure ES 2. Pakistan energy efficiency target
Calculated based on data from the Asia Pacific Energy Portal (ESCAP, 2022)
Under the current policy settings, the energy intensity is projected to drop to 4.47 MJ/US$2017. The energy efficiency target is met under the SDG scenario, reaching 3.97 MJ/US$2017 by 2030. This is primarily due to the phase-out of inefficient cooking and heating technologies, which are replaced with more efficient electric cooking stoves, improved cooking stoves, and cleaner heating stoves. In addition, further energy intensity reduction can be realised through increased adoption of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS), encouragement of public transport use, improvement of passenger car fuel economy, and adoption of the zig-zag brick kiln.
4. Nationally Determined Contribution
Pakistan’s updated nationally determined contribution (Government of Pakistan, 2021a) sets a target of an overall 50 per cent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions below BAU between 2015 and 2030, with a 15 per cent reduction using the country’s own resources (known as the unconditional target), and an additional 35 per cent subject to international financial support (known as the conditional target).
Using energy sector emissions projection for 2030 from the INDC document (56 per cent), the unconditional and conditional targets for the energy sector are estimated at 8.4 per cent and 28 per cent respectively. Figure ES 3 shows that this reduction in emissions is set to be achieved through an improved energy mix, green transportation, a pledge to build no new coal power plants and a ban on the use of imported coal for energy generation. The unconditional NDC target is met in CPS and SDG scenarios while the conditional NDC target is met in the decarbonisation of power sector scenario.
Figure ES 3. Comparison of emissions, by scenario, 2021-2030
[1] Historical trend projected based on the year 2000 access rate data provided in (ESCAP, 2022) and 2021 access rate provided by the national consultant.
Section 3
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C. Important policy directions
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The Road Map sets out the following four key policy recommendations to help Pakistan achieve the SDG 7 targets as well as reduce reliance on imported energy sources:
- Strong policy measures are required to address the large gap in clean cooking by 2030. Achieving access to clean cooking fuels and technologies is one of the biggest challenges for Pakistan. Adoption of electric cooking stoves in the urban areas and improved cooking stoves (ICS) in the rural areas of the country is needed to provide clean cooking access to 50.7 per cent of population (18.3 million households). ICS can play an intermediary role until cleaner options become more affordable. The cost of deployment of electric cooking stoves to the urban area would require USD 8.7 million whereas the deployment of ICS in the rural area would need USD 161 million. Therefore, the total cost of clean cooking access would be USD 169.7 million by 2030.
- Increase in the efficiency of energy use in all economic sectors should be pursued. The residential sector is also the highest energy consuming sector in Pakistan when traditional biomass (non-commercial biomass) use is considered. Therefore, utilisation of improved High Efficiency Low Emission (HELE) heaters for space heating in the rural areas will significantly help improve energy efficiency with an energy saving potential of 2,427 ktoe and reduce emissions by 1.02 MtCO2-e. HELE can play an intermediary role until cleaner options become more affordable. Targets to double the minimum energy performance standard (MEPS) adoption rate and thermal insulation improvement in the residential sector can be implemented to achieve a more sustainable target. Together these can reduce energy consumption by 1,719 ktoe by 2030. In addition to the residential sector, industry and agriculture sectors would have significant emission reduction potential of 2,631 ktoe through the adoption of efficient machinery and energy audit. Very high consumption of fossil fuel in the industry sector will pose a major challenge should the country wishes to pursue carbon neutrality by 2050. Therefore, fuel switching options including electrification of end uses need to be further considered. The Road Map has identified that the fuel switching options in different areas across the entire economy have the potential to reduce energy consumption by 95.5 Mtoe in 2050.
- Transport electrification strategies provide multi-fold benefits. With the absence of fuel efficiency standards and requirements to remove old vehicles from the road; the transport sector contributes to severe air pollution, GHG emissions (the second highest emitting sector after the industry sector) and inefficient use of energy resources. Vigorous adoption of electric vehicles is highly recommended. An adoption rate of 3.7 per cent for passenger car, 6.0 per cent of motorbikes, 6.0 per cent of taxi, 6.1 per cent of auto-rickshaw, 6.1 per cent of minibus and 3.7 of freight trucks has the potential to save energy by 1,031 ktoe and reduce emissions by 4.22 MtCO2-e. This will also reduce the demand for oil products, hence reducing Pakistan’s reliance on imported petroleum fuels. At the same time, it will contribute to climate mitigation and improve the local air quality. Electrification of transport is critical to decarbonise the transport sector by 2050. Simultaneously, the promotion of mass transportation and the improvement of fuel efficiency standards using hybrid model can be affordable pathways during the transition period before moving towards 100 per cent e-mobility.
- Decarbonisation of the power supply provides the highest potential for GHG emission reduction as well as improving energy security. Decarbonisation of the power sector is important to prevent shifting of emissions from one sector to another when implementing policies on clean cooking and electric vehicles. This would be also needed if the country plans to move towards carbon neutrality or net zero by 2050. Realizing the decarbonisation objective will require a substantial increase in renewable capacities, which could be challenging technically and economically, but it will offer multiple benefits, including reducing emissions and improving energy security through the utilization of indigenous resources, such as solar PV and wind. The decarbonization of the power sector by 2030 will need to substantially increase renewable energy in the generation mix to 23.7MW hydro, 17.4MW solar PV, 12.3MW wind, 2MW biomass and 3.6MW nuclear with an investment of USD 58.3 billion.