Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions and, more importantly, consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) and other SDGs. In this connection, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP). This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as emission reduction targets (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
Recognising the imperativeness of subregional efforts in supporting the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the national commitment towards the Paris Agreement, this initiative has been applied to several cities and subregions. ESCAP and the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy, Thailand have collaborated to support three provinces of Thailand in developing their Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) roadmaps using the NEXSTEP tool. This SET roadmap, developed for the province of Surat Thani, identifies the technological options and policy measures that will help the province navigates the transition of its energy sector in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
Recognising the imperativeness of subregional efforts in supporting the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the national commitment towards the Paris Agreement, this initiative has been applied to several cities and subregions. ESCAP and the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy, Thailand have collaborated to support three provinces of Thailand in developing their Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) roadmaps using the NEXSTEP tool. This SET roadmap, developed for the province of Surat Thani, identifies the technological options and policy measures that will help the province navigates the transition of its energy sector in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
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Section 1
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A. Highlights of the Roadmap
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The Province of Surat Thani (Surat Thani) is the largest southern provinces and the sixth largest province of Thailand. With a total land area of 13,079.61 km2, Surat Thani has a population of around 1.06 million in 2018. The gross provincial product (GPP) in 2018 was 306.9 billion Baht and the GPP per capita was around 195 thousand Baht. The development of the province of Surat Thani is guided by the 20-year Surat Thani Province Development Plan 2017 - 2036 (Surat Thani Provincial Office, 2018), which identifies key challenges and strategies for the provincial development. Several measures have been proposed for the energy sector, such as raising awareness on energy conservation and promote the production of energy from local resources.
This SET roadmap has two main objectives. Firstly, it aims to establish scenario baseline for the year 2019-2030, considering the current policy settings. Secondly, it identifies the measures and technological options that could raise Surat Thani’s efforts to align with the SDG 7 targets, national targets, as well as achieving deep decarbonisation of its energy system. The four scenarios that are presented in detail in this roadmap are:
This SET roadmap has two main objectives. Firstly, it aims to establish scenario baseline for the year 2019-2030, considering the current policy settings. Secondly, it identifies the measures and technological options that could raise Surat Thani’s efforts to align with the SDG 7 targets, national targets, as well as achieving deep decarbonisation of its energy system. The four scenarios that are presented in detail in this roadmap are:
- The current policy scenario (CPS), which has been developed based on existing policies and plans and used to identify the gaps in existing initiatives in aligning with the SDG 7 targets and national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement.
- The sustainable energy transition (SET) scenario presents technological options and policy measures that will help the city to align its development with the SDG 7 targets and national targets
- The Sustainable Transport Strategies (STS) explores how the province can further transition its transport sector through a greater degree of mass public transport and electric vehicles usage.
- The Towards Net Zero (TNZ) scenario, the most ambitious scenario, looks at a pathway of moving towards a net zero society in the near future, through decarbonising the electricity supply, fuel substitution and more ambitious electrification.
Section 2
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B. Aligning Province of Surat Thani’s energy transition pathway with the SDG 7 targets and national commitments
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Access to Modern Energy
Surat Thani has already achieved universal access to electricity, while the clean cooking access rate is estimated at 97.3 per cent in 2018. This includes the 6.4 per cent of households that do not conduct cooking at home. The remaining 2.6 per cent of the population, which corresponds to approximately 9,600 households, relied on traditional charcoal stove which contributes significantly towards indoor air pollution and associated health impacts. The national clean cooking access rate has been improving with an annual rate of 0.6 per cent during the 2015-2019 period. Continuing with a similar trajectory, a 100 per cent access rate may be expected by 2024.
Renewable Energy
The share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 42.0 per cent in 2018. All scenarios are projected to meet the national renewable energy target, 30 per cent of TFEC, set for the year 2037. Under the CPS, the share of RE will increase to 44.9 per cent by 2030. The increase in the RE share under the current policies is driven by the high growth of renewable energy share in grid electricity, which is projected to increase from 17.8 per cent in 2019 to 24.6 per cent in 2030, and a slight increase in biofuel usage in the transport sector. In the SET scenario, RE share in TFEC will, however, decrease to 41.5 per cent. As later described, the SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency measures to align the province’s energy demand reduction and GHG emissions reduction with the national targets. The energy demand reduction potential from the industry sector is the substantial, however, this measure reduces the share of biomass consumption in the energy system, contributing towards a reduced renewable energy share in 2030.
The RE share in TFEC for the STS and TNZ scenario is expected to be high, particularly in the TNZ scenario, which envisioned a decarbonised electricity supply. In the STS scenario, the RE share in TFEC is further increased to 45.9 per cent as the transport system gets more efficient with a higher adoption rate of public mass transport and electric vehicles. Apart from a decarbonised electricity supply, the TNZ scenario also aims to increase the pace towards net-zero carbon through fuel substitution and higher rate of electrification, reaching a RE share of 75.2 per cent in 2030. As later described in the roadmap, there are several pathways in achieving a decarbonised electricity supply, with the most promising and cost effective one being through renewable energy auction.
Energy Efficiency
Surat Thani’s energy Intensity is estimated at 6.82 ktoe/billion baht2010 (in terms of TFEC) in 2018. It is expected to reduce to 6.68 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030 in the CPS, as GDP growth outpaces the growth in energy demand. This corresponds to an annual improvement rate of 0.16 per cent. The SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency interventions across the demand sectors, which further decreases the energy intensity to 5.67 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030, putting Surat Thani on the path to meet the national energy efficiency target of 5.98 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2037. The industry sector made up of around 47.6 per cent of the total energy demand 2018, and adoption of energy efficiency measures across the sector is expected to provide a substantial savings of about 232 ktoe. NEXSTEP proposes an increase of electric vehicle share in the transport fleet to between 15 to 50 per cent, by 2030. The projected result – 57 ktoe reduction in energy demand from the CPS is due to the high efficiency of electric vehicles. Energy savings can also be sought from the residential and commercial sectors.
The energy demand reduction can be remarkable, should Surat Thani consider a higher ambition for its transport sector, specifically, expanding mass public transport and electric vehicle adoption. The energy intensity of STS scenario is projected to reduce to 5.08 ktoe/billion baht2010, corresponding to a 2.42 per cent energy efficiency improvement per annum. The energy intensity in the TNZ scenario is projected to be 4.98 ktoe/billion baht2010.
GHG emissions
The GHG emissions in 2018 are estimated at 2.8 MTCO2-e, which considers the direct fuel combustion from the demand sector and emissions attributable to the grid electricity. ES 1 shows the GHG emission trajectories for the different scenarios. The GHG emissions from the CPS is projected to reach 3.86 MTCO2-e, while it is further decreased to 3.48 MTCO2-e in the SET scenario. The latter corresponds to a 20 per cent reduction from a BAU baseline, aligning the province’s GHG emission reduction with the national unconditional NDC target. More ambitious sustainable transport strategies further reduce the emissions to 3.08 MTCO2-e in the STS scenario, while drastic decrease can be observed in the TNZ scenario – only 1.15 MTCO2-e with a fully decarbonised electricity supply.
Figure ES 1 Comparison of emissions by scenarios 2022-2030
Surat Thani has already achieved universal access to electricity, while the clean cooking access rate is estimated at 97.3 per cent in 2018. This includes the 6.4 per cent of households that do not conduct cooking at home. The remaining 2.6 per cent of the population, which corresponds to approximately 9,600 households, relied on traditional charcoal stove which contributes significantly towards indoor air pollution and associated health impacts. The national clean cooking access rate has been improving with an annual rate of 0.6 per cent during the 2015-2019 period. Continuing with a similar trajectory, a 100 per cent access rate may be expected by 2024.
Renewable Energy
The share of renewable energy (RE) in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 42.0 per cent in 2018. All scenarios are projected to meet the national renewable energy target, 30 per cent of TFEC, set for the year 2037. Under the CPS, the share of RE will increase to 44.9 per cent by 2030. The increase in the RE share under the current policies is driven by the high growth of renewable energy share in grid electricity, which is projected to increase from 17.8 per cent in 2019 to 24.6 per cent in 2030, and a slight increase in biofuel usage in the transport sector. In the SET scenario, RE share in TFEC will, however, decrease to 41.5 per cent. As later described, the SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency measures to align the province’s energy demand reduction and GHG emissions reduction with the national targets. The energy demand reduction potential from the industry sector is the substantial, however, this measure reduces the share of biomass consumption in the energy system, contributing towards a reduced renewable energy share in 2030.
The RE share in TFEC for the STS and TNZ scenario is expected to be high, particularly in the TNZ scenario, which envisioned a decarbonised electricity supply. In the STS scenario, the RE share in TFEC is further increased to 45.9 per cent as the transport system gets more efficient with a higher adoption rate of public mass transport and electric vehicles. Apart from a decarbonised electricity supply, the TNZ scenario also aims to increase the pace towards net-zero carbon through fuel substitution and higher rate of electrification, reaching a RE share of 75.2 per cent in 2030. As later described in the roadmap, there are several pathways in achieving a decarbonised electricity supply, with the most promising and cost effective one being through renewable energy auction.
Energy Efficiency
Surat Thani’s energy Intensity is estimated at 6.82 ktoe/billion baht2010 (in terms of TFEC) in 2018. It is expected to reduce to 6.68 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030 in the CPS, as GDP growth outpaces the growth in energy demand. This corresponds to an annual improvement rate of 0.16 per cent. The SET scenario proposes several energy efficiency interventions across the demand sectors, which further decreases the energy intensity to 5.67 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2030, putting Surat Thani on the path to meet the national energy efficiency target of 5.98 ktoe/billion baht2010 by 2037. The industry sector made up of around 47.6 per cent of the total energy demand 2018, and adoption of energy efficiency measures across the sector is expected to provide a substantial savings of about 232 ktoe. NEXSTEP proposes an increase of electric vehicle share in the transport fleet to between 15 to 50 per cent, by 2030. The projected result – 57 ktoe reduction in energy demand from the CPS is due to the high efficiency of electric vehicles. Energy savings can also be sought from the residential and commercial sectors.
The energy demand reduction can be remarkable, should Surat Thani consider a higher ambition for its transport sector, specifically, expanding mass public transport and electric vehicle adoption. The energy intensity of STS scenario is projected to reduce to 5.08 ktoe/billion baht2010, corresponding to a 2.42 per cent energy efficiency improvement per annum. The energy intensity in the TNZ scenario is projected to be 4.98 ktoe/billion baht2010.
GHG emissions
The GHG emissions in 2018 are estimated at 2.8 MTCO2-e, which considers the direct fuel combustion from the demand sector and emissions attributable to the grid electricity. ES 1 shows the GHG emission trajectories for the different scenarios. The GHG emissions from the CPS is projected to reach 3.86 MTCO2-e, while it is further decreased to 3.48 MTCO2-e in the SET scenario. The latter corresponds to a 20 per cent reduction from a BAU baseline, aligning the province’s GHG emission reduction with the national unconditional NDC target. More ambitious sustainable transport strategies further reduce the emissions to 3.08 MTCO2-e in the STS scenario, while drastic decrease can be observed in the TNZ scenario – only 1.15 MTCO2-e with a fully decarbonised electricity supply.
Figure ES 1 Comparison of emissions by scenarios 2022-2030
Section 3
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C. Important policy directions
Content
As described above, there are ample of opportunities for Surat Thani to transform its energy system in alignment with the national targets and commitment towards the Paris Agreement. The key policy recommendations to help Surat Thani in its sustainable energy transition, include:
- Adoption of energy efficiency measures across all industrial sub-sectors can realise a deep reduction in energy demand. Provincial government may consider providing financial incentives in encouraging a widespread adoption of industrial best practices.
- Sustainable transport strategies should be pursued, including expansion of mass public transport and transport electrification. This shall bring multitude benefits, such as reduce road traffic congestion (with mass public transport), energy demand and GHG emissions. More can be done to encourage such transition, e.g. expanding EV charging and public transport infrastructure.
- Decarbonisation of the power supply provides the highest potential in GHG emission reduction. Several pathways can be considered such as solar rooftop and RE auction, which may be the most cost-effective and efficient solution. Surat Thani government should consider working with the national government to identify modalities to implement RE auction at the local level.
- Raised ambitions, particularly a higher level of electrification and a net-zero power sector puts Surat Thani on path of a net-zero trajectory. National government should support this direction by introducing enabling policy measures e.g. mandating development and implementation of provincial net zero plans.